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NASA 

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Downloaded from
YTS.BZ

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[music]

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Official YIFY movies site:
YTS.BZ

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This next set is finishing up.

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We'll have some new data
here pretty quick.

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Potentially hazardous
asteroids can show up anywhere

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in the night sky at any time.

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We're up here for 12 to 13 hours
sometimes making decisions about

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the objects we're seeing

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if they're real or if they're just
noise in the background.

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[background noise]

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The odds of finding
an asteroid are going to increase

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as we move toward the east.

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[background noise]

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Sixth, 3025.

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[music]

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Oh, this might be something.

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Oh, you guys, look at that.

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Based off these four images,

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this is a brand-new
near-Earth asteroid.

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We got one.

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No, I didn't think
that was going to happen.

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No, it's brand new.

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I just got the notice back
from the Minor Planet Center

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that they published it.

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There it is, bam, live.

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This is actually a big rock, too.

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Right now, it is absolutely
a potentially hazardous object.

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If you guys were going to be here
for a discovery,

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a PHA is definitely what you want.

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[laughs]

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This is a big rock, yes.

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It is nominally about
230 meters in diameter,

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which is quite large.

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And its minimum orbit
intersection distance

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with Earth, which means
how close it comes

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to the Earth's path
and the Earth's orbit,

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is between us and the Moon.

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It's only about 150,000 kilometers away,

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which is a significant PHA.

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A PHA like this only comes
up a couple of times per year.

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These are the ones we want.

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Yes, that's a nice one.

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[music]

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When a 2 mile-wide fragment

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of the comet traveling
40 miles a second.

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Pieces of the comet
that will hit Jupiter.

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Three fragments
are scheduled to hit the planet.

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Will slam into the same area,

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the same spot on the planet Jupiter.

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About 1993, we learned that there was

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a comet heading for Jupiter.

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Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 was a comet

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that was discovered
by Eugene and Carolyn Shoemaker

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and David Levy.

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It was shown to be broken
up into a bunch of pieces.

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They traced back the orbit.

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This thing had gone
by Jupiter and got disrupted.

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And then they tracked the orbit forward

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and found out
these are getting to hit Jupiter.

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And that got everyone excited.

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It's really the first time

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that these impacts
have been observed.

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Impacts were very important

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in the formation of everything.

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We could observe
an impact on another planet.

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Scientists still don't know

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what they're going to see tonight,
but they do know

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that they've come to the best place
in the world to see it.

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The whole world community,
scientific community, was preparing

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to observe these events.

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Any telescopes
that could observe the impacts did.

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Many, many ground-based telescopes.

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The Hubble Space Telescope.

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All of the images
from Hubble that went

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on the web suddenly
got everyone's attention.

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Which was a real key
to many of the scientific results.

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Also, Galileo.

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Which was on the way
to Jupiter at the time.

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The NASA Infrared Telescope Facility

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had a campaign dedicated
to observing Shoemaker-Levy.

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This observing run
for the Shoemaker-Levy 9 impacts,

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that was my first observing run ever.

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We're starting tonight
with the near-infrared spectrometer.

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God, that's gorgeous.

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I remember seeing something
pop up on the screen.

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We were shouting.

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[laughter]

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We're literally dancing around.

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And we saw this bright thing
just light up.

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It was like, "Yes, we did it."

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We were all like kids in a candy
store, I guess. [laughs]

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A lot of the energy
we saw wasn't just

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the impact itself,
but it was the splashback.

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When those pieces
plowed into the atmosphere,

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they brought up big
plumes of material that rained

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back down on the upper part
of the atmosphere.

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We're able to measure changes
in the upper atmosphere of Jupiter.

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It taught us a great deal
about how impacts take place.

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Scientists say if a fragment
the same size hit Earth,

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it would leave a crater
the size of Rhode Island.

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It was one of those wake-up calls

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that not only impacts something
that happened in the past,

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but they're happening
now in our solar system.

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Here it is this awakening.

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It kind of precipitated this

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NASA Planetary
Defense Coordination Office.

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To make sure to find
the asteroids that come close

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to Earth and the comets
that come close

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to Earth, get them cataloged,
figure out

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where they've been and
where they're going to be

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in the future just so we understand,

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are we at risk of being
impacted on the Earth?

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That's a big component
of what NASA does.

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Now, it has planetary defense
to find potential impacts

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for the Earth and protecting it.

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[music]

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[background conversation]

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Let's go back
to Senator Cruz's question.

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What would an asteroid
that is a kilometer in diameter,

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what would it do if it hit the Earth?

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That is likely to end
human civilization.

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[music]

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The impacts of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9

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with Jupiter in 1994,
that showed us that, you know what,

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impacts are still happening
in the solar system today.

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That really spurred some interest
on the part of Congress.

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NASA was tasked by Congress in 1998

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to catalog 90%
of all the large near-Earth objects,

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so those that are 1 kilometer
or more in size.

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[music]

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Those objects are big enough to cause

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what we would call
truly global devastation,

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meaning that they could cause
global extinction events.

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The good news is that we've found
more than about 95% of them.

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The catalog includes
almost 900 asteroids,

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1 kilometer or larger in size.

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That said, none of these known
large NEOs pose any threat of impact

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to the Earth within
the next 100 years.

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[music]

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Then eventually in 2005,

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that direction
from Congress to NASA was set to find

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the population of asteroids

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that are 140 meters
and larger in size

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that could do regional damage
should it impact Earth.

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A city killer.

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Now, the picture's not so rosy.

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We know of about
40% of those objects today.

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Today, we do not have
a complete inventory

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of all the possible impactors.

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That is something that NASA

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and the worldwide planetary defense
community has been endeavoring to do.

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Well, here at NASA, what I lead

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is the Planetary
Defense Coordination Office.

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We are helping to coordinate
efforts not only in the United States

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and across U.S. agencies,
but also around the world.

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Finding asteroids, tracking them,

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calculating their orbits,
figuring out

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where they're going
to be in the future,

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studying their physical properties,

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and then you get that information
you might need

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in the event an impact
threat is discovered.

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We have discovered more than 30,000
near-Earth objects so far.

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And we are discovering
hundreds every year.

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But we haven't found them all,
so that's really the big question.

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There's almost
certainly a decent-sized asteroid out

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there that is going to pose
an impact threat to the planet.

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We're just trying
to find it right now.

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[music]

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The way we approach
finding near-Earth objects

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is basically just
to make a short movie

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of the night sky
that consists of four frames,

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and then our software
will pick out objects

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that are moving
inside of the four frames.

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We have to identify

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if they are real
or if they're false detections.

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I first started hunting
asteroids in my backyard

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and I just had the hope
of maybe discovering one.

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When that happened,

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it was a very special
moment in my life.

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My interest in astronomy
started at a fairly young age.

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I remember as a kid
seeing Comet Hale-Bopp

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in the sky from southern Utah.

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It was really a spectacular
sight as a child.

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Just trying to wrap my mind around

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what I was looking at was difficult.

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[music]

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This is one area
of science where discoveries

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are still happening
on a nightly basis.

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It's really a neat feeling to step

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into that where you can be sitting
in a telescope at night

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and discover
a new minor planet that's in orbit

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around the Sun that nobody
has ever seen before.

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It's a special thing
and I think that's what draws

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a lot of people into this business.

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[music]

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The first order of planetary
defense is finding the asteroids.

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One aspect of the program
is funding institutions

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with telescopes
that can image wide swaths

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of the sky to be able to look
at that starry background and look

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for objects moving
with respect to the stars to see,

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is there something
there that we haven't seen before?

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This is the whole sky.

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That's a whole sky camera.

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You can see,
this is a live video feed

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from the end of the telescope.

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You can make out
the Milky Way right here.

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This is the size of the images
we're taking right now.

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Then we subtract the known objects
and the stars from those images

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and then we look for moving targets.

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The object is moving
because it's closer

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to the Earth than
the background stars.

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I can tell this first one is a star.

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You can see
that that object stays there.

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If I load up a catalog image,
which is a very old image,

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you can see that first.

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It is actually a star.

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That one's actually a star.

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Those moving targets
are going to be asteroids

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that are in orbit around the Sun.

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That's a known asteroid.

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It comes up green
and it has the designation above it.

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Oftentimes, they're new.

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We've never seen them before.

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What we have here is a near-Earth
asteroid that is likely brand new.

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I can already tell
that it's not coming up

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in any of the known databases.

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Then what you have to do is go

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and identify
whether it's a known asteroid

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or a new asteroid,
so that's the next step.

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When the asteroid
is first discovered,

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we submit the information
almost immediately

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to the Minor Planet
Center at Harvard.

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We are going to send
this data off in real time here.

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The temporary designation
we're going to assign to it,

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the date and the time

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and the location on the sky
that it was located,

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and then its approximate
visual magnitude.

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I'm going to report it

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as a brand-new near-Earth
object candidate.

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It's important to turn
that information around quickly.

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The different survey telescopes

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quickly feed
those position measurements

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to the Minor Planet Center,

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which is the internationally
recognized repository

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for position measurements
of small bodies

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throughout the solar system.

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The Minor Planet Center is,
I like to think is the link

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between the astronomy
community and everything that comes

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after that in planetary defense.

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My name is Federica Spoto
and I'm the project scientist

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of the Minor Planet Center.

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Part of the role
of the Minor Planet Center

255
00:12:24,667 --> 00:12:29,066
is to actually distinguish
what is known and what is not known.

256
00:12:29,066 --> 00:12:32,834
We keep all the observations
and all the orbits of the objects.

257
00:12:32,834 --> 00:12:33,834
We don't see the image.

258
00:12:33,834 --> 00:12:35,300
We just see these points.

259
00:12:35,300 --> 00:12:36,834
Those represent
the different position

260
00:12:36,834 --> 00:12:39,700
of the object moving
since it tells you very accurately

261
00:12:39,700 --> 00:12:42,600
the time of the observations
and then the position.

262
00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,667
Once we have the position
and the time, we can get the orbit.

263
00:12:45,667 --> 00:12:49,867
All the data comes in from everyone
gets consolidated there.

264
00:12:49,867 --> 00:12:53,400
We have a common catalog
that we are working from.

265
00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:55,567
An archive of everything
that is known

266
00:12:55,567 --> 00:12:58,266
and everything that is not known.

267
00:12:58,433 --> 00:13:00,066
The cool thing about
the Minor Planet Center

268
00:13:00,066 --> 00:13:02,367
is that everything we do is public.

269
00:13:02,367 --> 00:13:03,934
As soon as we receive
the observations,

270
00:13:03,934 --> 00:13:05,233
the observations goes out.

271
00:13:05,233 --> 00:13:07,300
That information can all be rolled up

272
00:13:07,300 --> 00:13:12,133
there and available
for other observatories to see them

273
00:13:12,133 --> 00:13:14,734
and then go get
additional observations

274
00:13:14,734 --> 00:13:17,634
so that there is enough
information to get an orbit.

275
00:13:17,634 --> 00:13:19,900
Anyone can then access that data

276
00:13:19,900 --> 00:13:22,333
to track these objects
down and help us determine

277
00:13:22,333 --> 00:13:24,800
if they are going to be an impact
risk in the future.

278
00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,700
Once we find an asteroid
and we've got an orbit for it,

279
00:13:27,700 --> 00:13:31,533
the next logical question is,
is it going to hit the Earth?

280
00:13:31,533 --> 00:13:33,033
Fortunately, there's a group here

281
00:13:33,033 --> 00:13:34,667
at the Jet Propulsion
Laboratory called

282
00:13:34,667 --> 00:13:37,934
the Center for Near-Earth
Object Studies, or CNEOS for short,

283
00:13:37,934 --> 00:13:40,233
that is tasked
with doing exactly this.

284
00:13:40,233 --> 00:13:43,934
[music]

285
00:13:43,967 --> 00:13:46,400
They assess the hazard potential

286
00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:48,800
of this newly discovered
near-Earth object.

287
00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:51,467
They do orbit determination to see

288
00:13:51,467 --> 00:13:53,967
both short-term and way
out into the future,

289
00:13:53,967 --> 00:13:55,100
100 years into the future.

290
00:13:55,100 --> 00:13:56,967
Could any of those pose
an impact threat?

291
00:13:56,967 --> 00:13:58,300
My name is Ryan Park.

292
00:13:58,300 --> 00:14:01,433
I'm the supervisor
of the Solar System Dynamics Group

293
00:14:01,433 --> 00:14:03,533
at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

294
00:14:03,533 --> 00:14:05,734
I'm also serving
as the project manager

295
00:14:05,734 --> 00:14:08,200
for Center for Near-Earth
Object Studies.

296
00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:11,967
To date, we maintain about
a little over 1.3 million objects,

297
00:14:11,967 --> 00:14:13,467
most of them being asteroids.

298
00:14:13,467 --> 00:14:16,066
We predict the motion
of all known asteroids.

299
00:14:16,066 --> 00:14:17,900
And we process the entire data set

300
00:14:17,900 --> 00:14:19,967
from the Minor Planet
Center to predict

301
00:14:19,967 --> 00:14:22,533
and reconstruct
the orbit of the asteroids

302
00:14:22,533 --> 00:14:25,100
so that we can perform
statistical assessment

303
00:14:25,100 --> 00:14:27,734
of the potential Earth's impact.

304
00:14:28,100 --> 00:14:30,934
What we do is we process
the astrometry

305
00:14:30,934 --> 00:14:33,200
collected by ground-based observers.

306
00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:35,033
We feed those through what we call

307
00:14:35,033 --> 00:14:36,634
the orbit determination process

308
00:14:36,634 --> 00:14:40,567
to get the orbit of the asteroid
as a function of time

309
00:14:40,567 --> 00:14:42,066
so we can propagate backwards,

310
00:14:42,066 --> 00:14:46,100
forwards, and figure out
where the asteroid is in real time.

311
00:14:46,100 --> 00:14:47,567
This basically catalogs

312
00:14:47,567 --> 00:14:49,700
all the potentially
hazardous asteroids

313
00:14:49,700 --> 00:14:51,667
that might come close to the Earth.

314
00:14:51,667 --> 00:14:55,900
And we document the probability
of potential Earth's impact.

315
00:14:55,900 --> 00:14:58,433
And if it were to hit
the Earth with certain probability,

316
00:14:58,433 --> 00:15:00,634
when is it going to be and
where is it going to be?

317
00:15:00,634 --> 00:15:04,200
And we do this for next 100 years
and assess

318
00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:05,934
whether it's going to be hitting
the Earth and,

319
00:15:05,934 --> 00:15:07,967
if so, with what probability.

320
00:15:07,967 --> 00:15:10,600
That information gets
shared with the CNEOS website

321
00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,300
as well as with the entire world.

322
00:15:14,700 --> 00:15:16,233
This data gets disseminated

323
00:15:16,233 --> 00:15:18,467
immediately to many
different organizations.

324
00:15:18,467 --> 00:15:23,600
NASA's Center for Near-Earth
Object Studies runs watchdogs

325
00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:26,634
that are constantly
ingesting this data

326
00:15:26,634 --> 00:15:30,634
and calculating the odds
of an impact in the near future.

327
00:15:30,634 --> 00:15:33,333
If they find that this object
has any probability

328
00:15:33,333 --> 00:15:34,834
of hitting
the Earth in the near future,

329
00:15:34,834 --> 00:15:39,166
we will get an alert on our systems
within about 10 or 15 minutes.

330
00:15:39,166 --> 00:15:42,900
And then when people start
receiving this type of warning,

331
00:15:42,900 --> 00:15:45,467
then there's a huge
community of astronomers

332
00:15:45,467 --> 00:15:48,000
that start observing
it from all around the globe.

333
00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:52,900
As the Earth rotates and nighttime
falls across Asia or Europe.

334
00:15:52,900 --> 00:15:56,800
And so we start getting observations
from all over the world at every time

335
00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:58,900
and we start processing
them really quickly.

336
00:15:58,900 --> 00:16:00,734
It's a very smooth-running machine.

337
00:16:00,734 --> 00:16:02,867
[music]

338
00:16:06,133 --> 00:16:08,900
It transcends
boundaries of countries.

339
00:16:08,900 --> 00:16:11,734
Asteroids don't care about
international boundaries.

340
00:16:11,734 --> 00:16:14,400
It doesn't matter
where the asteroid impacts.

341
00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:16,400
It affects the entire humanity.

342
00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:18,500
In fact, anything alive on the Earth.

343
00:16:18,500 --> 00:16:22,000
It transcends basically anything,
except what makes us human

344
00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:26,266
and what it means
to help discover and protect

345
00:16:26,266 --> 00:16:29,333
the planet from a hazardous
asteroid that might be incoming.

346
00:16:29,333 --> 00:16:32,500
Yes, I'm really proud of it,
I would say.

347
00:16:33,166 --> 00:16:34,166
I'm proud.

348
00:16:34,166 --> 00:16:35,700
I'm proud that I'm working
on something

349
00:16:35,700 --> 00:16:37,867
that is actually very useful
for the community.

350
00:16:37,867 --> 00:16:40,667
For planetary defense but also like

351
00:16:40,667 --> 00:16:44,634
we do everything
so that we can help the community.

352
00:16:46,166 --> 00:16:50,600
It was a great honor
to have an asteroid named after me.

353
00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,200
There's Ryan Park asteroid.

354
00:16:53,467 --> 00:16:55,767
I mean, this was a huge deal for me.

355
00:16:55,834 --> 00:16:57,567
This basically led me to believe

356
00:16:57,567 --> 00:17:01,233
that I'm making
some contribution to the field.

357
00:17:01,233 --> 00:17:04,533
We didn't even know
asteroids existed 200 years ago.

358
00:17:04,533 --> 00:17:07,233
And it's only been in the last
few decades

359
00:17:07,233 --> 00:17:12,367
that we even had the technology
to be able to detect these things.

360
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:17,700
So yeah, I might be referred
to as the Father of Planetary Defense.

361
00:17:18,300 --> 00:17:23,700
I created the term perhaps,
but it is only because I stand

362
00:17:23,700 --> 00:17:27,266
on the shoulders
of those asteroid hunters before me

363
00:17:27,266 --> 00:17:33,033
that we are now able to protect
the world from a asteroid impact.

364
00:17:35,967 --> 00:17:38,400
So this object has already been ingested

365
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:42,533
by the Center for Near-Earth
Object Studies Scout watchdog.

366
00:17:42,533 --> 00:17:45,133
Right off the bat,
it tells us that the probability this

367
00:17:45,133 --> 00:17:48,100
is a near-Earth
object is already 100%.

368
00:17:48,367 --> 00:17:52,100
And the probability it is a potentially
hazardous asteroid is 67%.

369
00:17:52,100 --> 00:17:56,166
There is no real impact
rating or probability.

370
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,700
So it's not currently a threat, but

371
00:17:59,266 --> 00:18:01,834
long-term after the arc is extended

372
00:18:01,834 --> 00:18:04,567
and we have a better idea
of the orbit of this object,

373
00:18:04,567 --> 00:18:06,533
this might be a brand-new unknown,

374
00:18:06,533 --> 00:18:09,066
potentially hazardous asteroid.

375
00:18:11,033 --> 00:18:16,400
[music]

376
00:18:19,567 --> 00:18:22,834
So finding asteroids, that's probably
the most important part

377
00:18:22,834 --> 00:18:23,767
of planetary defense

378
00:18:23,767 --> 00:18:26,834
or the fundamental
part of planetary defense.

379
00:18:26,834 --> 00:18:30,333
But it doesn't help to see an asteroid
if you don't have enough information

380
00:18:30,333 --> 00:18:32,100
to know where it's going
to be in the future.

381
00:18:32,100 --> 00:18:34,734
You can't do anything about
them unless you find them

382
00:18:34,734 --> 00:18:37,400
and know where they're going.

383
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,300
That means the race
is on to try to figure out,

384
00:18:39,300 --> 00:18:40,800
how can we get more data?

385
00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:42,166
Can we get more exposures of it

386
00:18:42,166 --> 00:18:44,967
so that we can figure out
which way it's actually going

387
00:18:44,967 --> 00:18:47,300
and then eventually get
a really good orbit for it

388
00:18:47,300 --> 00:18:49,333
so that we can predict
far into the future

389
00:18:49,333 --> 00:18:52,400
where it's going to go,
especially with respect to the Earth?

390
00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:54,834
So then there are telescopes
that go zero in

391
00:18:54,834 --> 00:18:58,233
on those initial observations
by the surveys and they get

392
00:18:58,233 --> 00:19:01,000
even more measurements
of those positions.

393
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,233
My name is Cassandra Lejoly.

394
00:19:03,233 --> 00:19:06,500
SPACEWATCH® is, we're a follow
up survey essentially.

395
00:19:06,500 --> 00:19:09,100
So the telescope behind me
is a 0.9 meter telescope

396
00:19:09,100 --> 00:19:11,967
that we use to follow
up near-Earth objects.

397
00:19:11,967 --> 00:19:15,967
When they're first discovered,
they have very short orbital arcs.

398
00:19:15,967 --> 00:19:18,600
So they have very imprecise orbits.

399
00:19:18,867 --> 00:19:21,166
And so if we follow them up,
we get a better orbit

400
00:19:21,166 --> 00:19:23,834
to determine
if there's a higher chance

401
00:19:23,834 --> 00:19:26,533
of them hitting the Earth or not.

402
00:19:27,066 --> 00:19:31,233
So these are the type of images
that we get back from the telescope.

403
00:19:31,233 --> 00:19:35,533
And so you can see that our asteroid
is essentially a dot that's moving.

404
00:19:35,533 --> 00:19:37,767
And then the stars look like long lines

405
00:19:37,767 --> 00:19:42,834
because of how we track
on the asteroid and not on the stars.

406
00:19:43,333 --> 00:19:45,200
When an asteroid is first discovered,

407
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,600
the Minor Planet Center is able
to calculate

408
00:19:48,834 --> 00:19:51,734
a location on the sky
where it should be.

409
00:19:51,734 --> 00:19:53,767
So we already have an idea

410
00:19:53,767 --> 00:19:56,500
of how the asteroid's
going to be moving.

411
00:19:56,500 --> 00:20:00,967
So we take that assumed
motion and move with it.

412
00:20:01,834 --> 00:20:05,800
So my typical day or night, I guess,

413
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:09,600
we typically observe
for four to six nights straight.

414
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,667
And we come up to the mountain
and we have dorms up here.

415
00:20:12,667 --> 00:20:16,300
So we stay up here the whole
time we're observing.

416
00:20:17,433 --> 00:20:20,000
And what happens is that
we'll open the two telescopes.

417
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,567
We then have on our computers,

418
00:20:22,567 --> 00:20:26,500
a list of all the objects we can see
that needs follow-up right away.

419
00:20:26,500 --> 00:20:28,433
There's a few objects
we can choose here.

420
00:20:28,433 --> 00:20:32,166
I like to go for virtual impactors
because they're top of our list.

421
00:20:32,166 --> 00:20:34,100
They have a probability
of hitting us.

422
00:20:34,100 --> 00:20:36,233
We'll pick the best targets
for the night.

423
00:20:36,233 --> 00:20:39,367
Some of them come
in as we're observing overnight

424
00:20:39,367 --> 00:20:42,166
if they're newly discovered
and they need follow-up then.

425
00:20:42,166 --> 00:20:43,934
So let's say I want
to go for this object.

426
00:20:43,934 --> 00:20:45,667
What I would do is I would accept it

427
00:20:45,667 --> 00:20:47,700
in my queue and then I would accept

428
00:20:47,700 --> 00:20:49,734
the value and send it for recovery.

429
00:20:49,734 --> 00:20:53,233
What that would do is that would move
the telescope.

430
00:20:53,233 --> 00:20:56,500
So we get three images
of it to see it move and to see

431
00:20:56,500 --> 00:20:58,734
at what speeds and move
and then we measure

432
00:20:58,734 --> 00:21:00,834
its location on the sky.

433
00:21:01,066 --> 00:21:05,367
That is the measurement we report
back to the Minor Planet Center.

434
00:21:05,367 --> 00:21:09,166
Well, that's an asteroid right here.

435
00:21:09,166 --> 00:21:11,700
It's really cool when you're looking

436
00:21:11,700 --> 00:21:15,567
at an image from the sky
and you see a moving dot.

437
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,567
Every time I find
that moving asteroid,

438
00:21:18,567 --> 00:21:22,133
I'm excited by it because it means
you found it.

439
00:21:22,133 --> 00:21:25,533
You found a thing
in space that is moving.

440
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:29,300
It's right there on my image,
I can see it.

441
00:21:29,634 --> 00:21:32,033
So right there is our object
and it's moving right there.

442
00:21:32,033 --> 00:21:36,200
The first image is in the star,
so we can't measure that,

443
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,900
but then the second
and third image are right there.

444
00:21:38,900 --> 00:21:40,634
We can actually measure those.

445
00:21:40,634 --> 00:21:43,400
That new measurement
then helps better predict

446
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:47,367
the orbit fit and thus better predict
where it would be in the sky

447
00:21:47,367 --> 00:21:49,867
next time someone needs
to observe it to follow it up.

448
00:21:49,867 --> 00:21:52,467
The most important thing
is always get more data

449
00:21:52,467 --> 00:21:55,500
because the more data you get,
the better you are at refining

450
00:21:55,500 --> 00:21:57,367
the orbit and know
where the object is.

451
00:21:57,367 --> 00:21:59,567
And if you take another image
a little bit further,

452
00:21:59,567 --> 00:22:01,800
you can then put another data point,

453
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,667
and then you can keep
tracing that orbit around.

454
00:22:04,667 --> 00:22:06,700
As you collect more observations,

455
00:22:06,700 --> 00:22:10,600
the orbit of the asteroid in question
will get better and better.

456
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:14,467
I really like that I'm protecting
the planet and, yes,

457
00:22:14,467 --> 00:22:17,200
I'm not the one that's with a cape
pushing the asteroid away.

458
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:18,567
That's not what I do.

459
00:22:18,567 --> 00:22:21,100
In some ways, my little contribution

460
00:22:21,100 --> 00:22:25,567
might help not just myself
but someone in the future.

461
00:22:25,934 --> 00:22:28,233
And I think it's very
important to do that.

462
00:22:28,233 --> 00:22:33,200
[music]

463
00:22:34,734 --> 00:22:36,767
Last night while surveying in an area

464
00:22:36,767 --> 00:22:40,066
of the sky where we don't typically
find a lot of objects,

465
00:22:40,066 --> 00:22:42,567
I discovered an object
that had to be fairly large

466
00:22:42,567 --> 00:22:45,033
to be visible
for where it was in the sky.

467
00:22:45,033 --> 00:22:46,500
So here is the asteroid

468
00:22:46,500 --> 00:22:50,066
that Catalina Sky Survey discovered
a few days ago

469
00:22:50,066 --> 00:22:53,734
and we can also tell
that it's a pretty big object.

470
00:22:53,734 --> 00:22:56,533
The asteroid has to be observed
for many weeks and months

471
00:22:56,533 --> 00:22:59,467
into the future
so we can extend that data arc.

472
00:22:59,467 --> 00:23:02,600
So the orbit of that potentially
hazardous asteroid

473
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,667
is known into the future.

474
00:23:04,967 --> 00:23:07,233
The discovery arc
of the asteroid consists

475
00:23:07,233 --> 00:23:10,066
of just four points
of data over 20 minutes.

476
00:23:10,066 --> 00:23:14,634
And that is a really small snapshot
of the entire orbit of the asteroid.

477
00:23:14,634 --> 00:23:17,000
And it was able to be followed
up all around the globe

478
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,000
so that we didn't lose that asteroid.

479
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:20,467
And you can see
that it's been followed up

480
00:23:20,467 --> 00:23:22,800
by several different
telescopes right here.

481
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:24,066
So the arc length means

482
00:23:24,066 --> 00:23:26,667
it's been observed
for more than a day.

483
00:23:26,667 --> 00:23:31,166
So that is where it comes the closest
to intersecting the Earth's orbit.

484
00:23:31,166 --> 00:23:34,000
And telescope around the world
will continue taking observations

485
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,166
of this object to keep seeing

486
00:23:36,166 --> 00:23:38,967
if it has a potential
of hitting the Earth or not.

487
00:23:38,967 --> 00:23:44,467
[music]

488
00:23:49,233 --> 00:23:52,934
Well, at the current rate
of detection of near-Earth asteroids,

489
00:23:52,934 --> 00:23:55,634
it's going to take us
about another 30 years

490
00:23:55,634 --> 00:23:58,133
before we'll have this catalog

491
00:23:58,233 --> 00:24:00,333
that we've been tasked
by Congress to do.

492
00:24:00,333 --> 00:24:04,033
We've only discovered
less than 40% of the 90%

493
00:24:04,033 --> 00:24:05,667
of the object we need to discover.

494
00:24:05,667 --> 00:24:07,266
Finding the asteroids isn't something

495
00:24:07,266 --> 00:24:08,867
that can just happen overnight

496
00:24:08,867 --> 00:24:13,233
because telescopes
can only see so far away

497
00:24:13,233 --> 00:24:14,900
or they can only see so faint

498
00:24:14,900 --> 00:24:17,367
into what they might be looking
for out there.

499
00:24:17,367 --> 00:24:19,066
Ground-based telescopes are kind of limited

500
00:24:19,066 --> 00:24:22,000
to looking at night
away from the Sun.

501
00:24:22,300 --> 00:24:26,266
And we have to wait for the solar
system to bring asteroids around.

502
00:24:26,266 --> 00:24:27,934
The Earth is traveling
around the Sun.

503
00:24:27,934 --> 00:24:30,667
The asteroids are traveling
around the Sun.

504
00:24:30,667 --> 00:24:35,400
And so it isn't possible to see the entire
solar system at the same time.

505
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,400
It's hard to find asteroids
because relative to the size

506
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,567
of the Earth and the distances
within the inner solar system,

507
00:24:41,567 --> 00:24:42,834
they don't get bright enough

508
00:24:42,834 --> 00:24:45,800
to spot until they get
closer to the planet.

509
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,033
One of the tricky things
with searching for near-Earth objects

510
00:24:48,033 --> 00:24:50,700
is that some of them
are extremely dark.

511
00:24:50,700 --> 00:24:53,500
They're darker than lumps of coal.

512
00:24:53,734 --> 00:24:55,500
And that means that when we look
for them using

513
00:24:55,500 --> 00:24:57,734
the sunlight that reflects
off their surfaces,

514
00:24:57,734 --> 00:25:00,400
they're actually hard to spot
because they're dim and faint.

515
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,467
There are asteroids out
there that are very darkly colored

516
00:25:03,467 --> 00:25:06,934
and don't reflect a lot
of light from the Sun.

517
00:25:06,934 --> 00:25:08,634
They're difficult for the telescopes

518
00:25:08,634 --> 00:25:11,700
on the ground
to discover that are looking

519
00:25:11,700 --> 00:25:14,600
at the light that we can see
with our eyes.

520
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,133
So how do you overcome this?

521
00:25:16,133 --> 00:25:17,867
We have to go into space.

522
00:25:17,867 --> 00:25:20,533
We have to use different wavelength
than reflected light.

523
00:25:20,533 --> 00:25:22,233
All the telescopes on the Earth

524
00:25:22,233 --> 00:25:24,166
that are currently finding
near-Earth asteroids

525
00:25:24,166 --> 00:25:26,800
are discovering
in the visible wavelength.

526
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,800
They're primarily
looking at light reflected

527
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:31,667
by the asteroid from the Sun.

528
00:25:31,667 --> 00:25:34,700
The sunlight hits, the asteroid
deflects just like everything

529
00:25:34,700 --> 00:25:35,533
in the solar system.

530
00:25:35,533 --> 00:25:38,166
One way we can get
around this is instead of looking

531
00:25:38,166 --> 00:25:40,233
at the sunlight reflecting
off their surfaces,

532
00:25:40,233 --> 00:25:43,700
we can use the heat
that they emit to search for them.

533
00:25:43,700 --> 00:25:45,734
If we have a heat-seeking
telescope working

534
00:25:45,734 --> 00:25:47,567
at infrared wavelengths,

535
00:25:47,567 --> 00:25:49,233
even the dark objects
just pop right out.

536
00:25:49,233 --> 00:25:51,433
They stick out very brightly
because they've got

537
00:25:51,433 --> 00:25:55,166
a lot of heat that they re-radiate
and we can see that energy.

538
00:25:55,166 --> 00:25:58,300
Once you go into space, you're away
from the heat of the Earth.

539
00:25:58,300 --> 00:26:00,600
You can start looking
in the infrared wavelengths.

540
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:03,600
Because in the infrared wavelengths,

541
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,567
asteroids have more energy
being given out

542
00:26:06,567 --> 00:26:08,367
because a lot of them are darker.

543
00:26:08,367 --> 00:26:11,000
They absorb that radiation
in the daytime.

544
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,100
And in the nighttime, they re-radiate,
so they're very bright.

545
00:26:14,100 --> 00:26:17,567
You don't need that big
a telescope in space to detect

546
00:26:17,567 --> 00:26:19,266
the asteroids that you would

547
00:26:19,266 --> 00:26:21,634
from the Earth using visible light.

548
00:26:21,634 --> 00:26:24,500
And Near-Earth Object Surveyor
is one such telescope.

549
00:26:24,500 --> 00:26:25,900
The Near-Earth
Object Surveyor mission

550
00:26:25,900 --> 00:26:30,033
or NEO Surveyor for short,
NEO Surveyor, is a space telescope

551
00:26:30,033 --> 00:26:32,300
that we're building
that's designed to detect,

552
00:26:32,300 --> 00:26:35,033
track, and characterize
asteroids and comets

553
00:26:35,033 --> 00:26:37,433
that have the potential
to get close to the Earth.

554
00:26:37,433 --> 00:26:41,333
It'll also be positioned in such
a way that it can survey closer

555
00:26:41,333 --> 00:26:44,400
to the Sun than the telescopes
on the ground.

556
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:45,900
Because of this nice, tall sunshade,

557
00:26:45,900 --> 00:26:48,734
we can actually point
relatively close to the Sun.

558
00:26:48,734 --> 00:26:51,467
And that lets us look far
across the solar system

559
00:26:51,467 --> 00:26:54,333
so that we can spot the asteroids
when they're far away from us.

560
00:26:54,333 --> 00:26:57,734
So that, working in concert
with the telescopes on the ground,

561
00:26:57,734 --> 00:27:00,200
is going to really accelerate

562
00:27:00,533 --> 00:27:02,400
those objects getting
into the catalog.

563
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,133
With NEO Surveyor,
we should be able to see something

564
00:27:05,133 --> 00:27:08,500
like a few hundred thousand
new near-Earth objects

565
00:27:08,500 --> 00:27:09,934
over the course of its survey.

566
00:27:09,934 --> 00:27:13,967
We expect the numbers will increase
by somewhere between factor

567
00:27:13,967 --> 00:27:16,300
5 to 10 in the next decade.

568
00:27:16,300 --> 00:27:18,533
They're going to give
us lots of data.

569
00:27:18,533 --> 00:27:21,400
And they're going to require from us
to have different tools ready

570
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,533
to handle the data
in the best way we can.

571
00:27:23,533 --> 00:27:25,367
This increased rate of detection

572
00:27:25,367 --> 00:27:28,000
in the number of observations
that will be coming

573
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,767
into the Minor Planet
Center does require

574
00:27:30,767 --> 00:27:33,367
the Minor Planet Center
to be able to process

575
00:27:33,367 --> 00:27:35,634
things at a more rapid rate.

576
00:27:35,634 --> 00:27:36,767
And we're ready for it.

577
00:27:36,767 --> 00:27:38,834
And hopefully, that's going
to tell us a lot about

578
00:27:38,834 --> 00:27:41,000
the largest objects
in the populations.

579
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,133
The ones that are really truly large

580
00:27:43,133 --> 00:27:45,000
that have the potential
for a large amount

581
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,266
of ground damage
if they were to impact the Earth.

582
00:27:47,266 --> 00:27:52,433
[music]

583
00:27:54,934 --> 00:27:58,500
This is still kind of a golden age
of discovery for asteroids.

584
00:27:58,500 --> 00:27:59,634
One day in the future,

585
00:27:59,634 --> 00:28:01,767
we will have found
all of these objects.

586
00:28:01,767 --> 00:28:03,800
And this period of asteroid
discovery will come

587
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:05,433
to a close for the most part,

588
00:28:05,433 --> 00:28:08,567
at least the rocks that can pose
a significant threat to the Earth

589
00:28:08,567 --> 00:28:10,467
Will eventually all be cataloged,

590
00:28:10,467 --> 00:28:12,166
characterized, and either dealt

591
00:28:12,166 --> 00:28:14,667
with or removed from the risk lists.

592
00:28:14,667 --> 00:28:17,967
Any piece that you can do to help,
you should do it.

593
00:28:17,967 --> 00:28:19,600
And I think that's really important.

594
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,834
You don't have to be
a planetary scientist

595
00:28:22,834 --> 00:28:24,367
to go into planetary defense.

596
00:28:24,367 --> 00:28:29,834
It's just an amazing thing
to take science and apply it

597
00:28:29,867 --> 00:28:33,333
in such a way that it affects
people's everyday lives.

598
00:28:33,333 --> 00:28:36,433
Well, for me,
it's very personally satisfying

599
00:28:36,433 --> 00:28:39,500
to be involved
in an effort like this.

600
00:28:39,500 --> 00:28:41,734
I found my role in life, so to speak.

601
00:28:41,734 --> 00:28:46,066
So for me, it is very personal
because I have a chance,

602
00:28:46,066 --> 00:28:49,367
I'm fortunate enough
to contribute using science

603
00:28:49,367 --> 00:28:51,367
to protect the humanity, to protect

604
00:28:51,367 --> 00:28:53,567
the planet for that matter,
and everything

605
00:28:53,567 --> 00:28:57,066
that is on it because we only
have one Earth.

606
00:29:03,934 --> 00:29:08,133
[music]

607
00:29:09,266 --> 00:29:12,133
The explosion of a meteor
over Russia last month

608
00:29:12,133 --> 00:29:14,367
injured 1,500 people.

609
00:29:14,500 --> 00:29:17,233
The recent meteorite
that hit the Russian Urals

610
00:29:17,233 --> 00:29:18,734
with the force of an atomic bomb

611
00:29:18,734 --> 00:29:22,734
was a stark wake-up call
regarding threats from space.

612
00:29:22,734 --> 00:29:24,700
When the asteroid passed
through the Earth's atmosphere,

613
00:29:24,700 --> 00:29:26,367
it did so at a really high speed,

614
00:29:26,367 --> 00:29:29,266
something like 40,000 miles an hour.

615
00:29:29,266 --> 00:29:31,333
It had an explosive
energy about 25 times

616
00:29:31,333 --> 00:29:36,834
the bomb used in Hiroshima or about
470 kilotons of TNT.

617
00:29:37,934 --> 00:29:39,700
It did cause a massive shockwave

618
00:29:39,700 --> 00:29:42,867
that shattered
windows all over the city.

619
00:29:45,734 --> 00:29:48,467
[music]

620
00:29:48,467 --> 00:29:51,800
This much smaller meteorite
was not observed prior

621
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,533
to its entry into the atmosphere.

622
00:29:53,533 --> 00:29:56,600
The Chelyabinsk impact came
from the direction of the Sun.

623
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,433
It was on a very
difficult trajectory for us

624
00:29:59,433 --> 00:30:02,000
to be able to see
from ground-based telescopes.

625
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,333
Scientists testified about
how these objects are tracked

626
00:30:05,333 --> 00:30:07,834
and how those risks can be minimized.

627
00:30:07,834 --> 00:30:09,467
As we were reminded
a couple of weeks ago,

628
00:30:09,467 --> 00:30:12,033
the Earth is sometimes
hit by asteroids.

629
00:30:12,033 --> 00:30:15,800
Impacts have happened
and they will happen in the future.

630
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:17,767
That asteroid was only
about 18 meters across.

631
00:30:17,767 --> 00:30:19,300
That would fit
inside this room roughly.

632
00:30:19,300 --> 00:30:22,600
This asteroid never made a big
impact crater on the ground.

633
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:24,600
That's because it wasn't big enough

634
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,800
originally to make it to the ground
fully intact.

635
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,767
So the impacts of air bursts
are different from an impact

636
00:30:30,767 --> 00:30:33,166
that is physically
going to touch the ground.

637
00:30:33,166 --> 00:30:35,133
As the asteroid slammed
through the Earth's atmosphere,

638
00:30:35,133 --> 00:30:36,467
it was like hitting a brick wall.

639
00:30:36,467 --> 00:30:40,133
It just pulverized it into a million
little pieces like this one here.

640
00:30:40,133 --> 00:30:43,734
Even just from that 20 meter
asteroid disintegrating

641
00:30:43,734 --> 00:30:48,066
in Earth's atmosphere, the shockwave
from that, that did damage.

642
00:30:48,066 --> 00:30:50,533
The inside of the asteroid is stony.

643
00:30:50,533 --> 00:30:52,100
It looks like an ordinary rock.

644
00:30:52,100 --> 00:30:57,834
We need to know more about
these objects that could impact us.

645
00:30:57,834 --> 00:30:58,634
How big is it?

646
00:30:58,634 --> 00:30:59,700
What's it made out of?

647
00:30:59,700 --> 00:31:00,567
How does it spin?

648
00:31:00,567 --> 00:31:03,367
How much potential for damage
it might pose on the ground?

649
00:31:03,367 --> 00:31:05,200
The Earth has been bombarded
by asteroids

650
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,200
in its history and it will be hit
by asteroids again.

651
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:09,967
The questions
that we're trying to answer

652
00:31:09,967 --> 00:31:12,767
in planetary defense are when, where,

653
00:31:12,767 --> 00:31:14,433
and which rock is going to do it.

654
00:31:14,433 --> 00:31:17,600
[music]

655
00:31:36,233 --> 00:31:39,367
So what we have here
is a diversity of meteorites

656
00:31:39,367 --> 00:31:42,166
where they range
from stony meteorites

657
00:31:42,166 --> 00:31:43,800
like the ones you see here.

658
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,967
A great example
of that is Chelyabinsk,

659
00:31:46,967 --> 00:31:49,066
which fell in Russia in 2013.

660
00:31:49,066 --> 00:31:53,133
We want to understand
the threat that is coming towards us.

661
00:31:53,133 --> 00:31:56,734
Part of understanding the threat
is understanding the capabilities.

662
00:31:56,734 --> 00:31:59,000
Oftentimes, the physical makeup

663
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:02,800
of an object tells us about
its capability, its impact potential.

664
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,066
What can it do on the Earth?

665
00:32:05,066 --> 00:32:08,433
So studying the composition
tells us whether it's an iron,

666
00:32:08,433 --> 00:32:12,066
whether it's stones or stony
iron or carbonaceous.

667
00:32:12,066 --> 00:32:14,634
A weak object which has low density

668
00:32:14,634 --> 00:32:17,066
is not going to make
it into the atmosphere

669
00:32:17,066 --> 00:32:19,200
and intact onto the Earth.

670
00:32:19,333 --> 00:32:21,700
So you would have an air burst,
for example.

671
00:32:21,700 --> 00:32:24,533
Whereas if you have a really dense
object like this iron meteorite,

672
00:32:24,533 --> 00:32:26,000
it'll punch right
through the atmosphere

673
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:28,233
even if it's a small object.

674
00:32:28,233 --> 00:32:29,600
And then it will create a crater

675
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:31,467
like the Meteor Crater
we see in Arizona.

676
00:32:31,467 --> 00:32:33,767
[music]

677
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:35,900
So what do these meteorite tell us?

678
00:32:35,900 --> 00:32:37,700
Why do we need
to characterize these objects?

679
00:32:37,700 --> 00:32:41,200
So by understanding the composition,
we can figure out,

680
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,500
what is the mitigation
mechanism we're going to use?

681
00:32:43,500 --> 00:32:47,233
Because the tools
we would use vary vastly,

682
00:32:47,233 --> 00:32:49,834
depending upon what they're made of.

683
00:32:49,834 --> 00:32:54,033
[music]

684
00:32:54,066 --> 00:32:55,300
To understand what asteroids are,

685
00:32:55,300 --> 00:32:58,300
you have to go back
to kind of the beginning of our solar system.

686
00:32:58,300 --> 00:33:02,000
Asteroids are rocky bodies
that are kind of leftover fragments

687
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,767
from when our solar system
first formed a long time ago,

688
00:33:04,767 --> 00:33:06,600
more than four billion years ago.

689
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:08,900
The major planets formed
And the first solids condensed out

690
00:33:08,900 --> 00:33:10,233
of the solar nebula.

691
00:33:10,233 --> 00:33:13,066
These solids slowly coalesced,
came together

692
00:33:13,066 --> 00:33:15,900
eventually to form
what you call as planetesimals.

693
00:33:15,900 --> 00:33:17,767
These are objects that are a few tens

694
00:33:17,767 --> 00:33:20,133
to a few hundred kilometers across.

695
00:33:20,133 --> 00:33:22,100
And you had internal heat.

696
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,533
That led to what you call
as differentiation.

697
00:33:24,533 --> 00:33:27,400
They'll have a core,
a mantle, and a crust.

698
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:30,000
So these iron meteorites
we see here represents

699
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:32,700
the cores of those planetesimals.

700
00:33:33,433 --> 00:33:36,834
We believe that there were
more than 100 planetesimals

701
00:33:36,834 --> 00:33:39,166
that differentiated
between the orbits

702
00:33:39,166 --> 00:33:42,300
of Mars and Jupiter,
but most of these planetesimals

703
00:33:42,300 --> 00:33:45,233
were destroyed
catastrophically due to impacts

704
00:33:45,233 --> 00:33:48,333
over the next few hundred
million years.

705
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,266
And what we see now in the asteroid
belt are remnants

706
00:33:51,266 --> 00:33:53,133
of those catastrophic destructions.

707
00:33:53,133 --> 00:33:56,767
Most of the material that made
up our solar system got swept up

708
00:33:56,767 --> 00:34:00,734
into the Sun and to the individual
planets, but not all of it.

709
00:34:00,734 --> 00:34:03,500
It's like shattering
a plate on the floor.

710
00:34:03,500 --> 00:34:07,400
You have a few big pieces,
but lots and lots of small pieces.

711
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:11,500
So asteroids are those leftovers
of the formation of the solar system.

712
00:34:11,500 --> 00:34:13,266
A lot of them keep their distance

713
00:34:13,266 --> 00:34:15,700
very nicely in the asteroid belt

714
00:34:15,700 --> 00:34:18,333
between the orbits
of Mars and Jupiter,

715
00:34:18,333 --> 00:34:21,533
but some of them over time,
because of being tweaked

716
00:34:21,533 --> 00:34:24,233
by the gravitational pull
of Jupiter and whatnot,

717
00:34:24,233 --> 00:34:27,934
have made their way
into the inner solar system.

718
00:34:28,266 --> 00:34:30,867
And so, some of these leftovers
from the formation

719
00:34:30,867 --> 00:34:35,200
of the solar system can get a little
too close for comfort to Earth.

720
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,500
That's how we end up
with near-Earth asteroids.

721
00:34:37,500 --> 00:34:39,934
We'd really like to understand
the distribution of these objects,

722
00:34:39,934 --> 00:34:42,867
their compositions,
and where they come from.

723
00:34:42,867 --> 00:34:44,300
So that's what we're trying to find out.

724
00:34:44,300 --> 00:34:46,400
How do they leak into the inner
part of the solar system

725
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:48,867
and get into this region
near the Earth's orbit?

726
00:34:48,867 --> 00:34:51,900
[music]

727
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:02,867
You don't want to just know
that the asteroid is there.

728
00:35:02,867 --> 00:35:04,800
You want to know, how large is it?

729
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:06,467
What is it made of?

730
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:08,333
So there are telescopes that then go out

731
00:35:08,333 --> 00:35:11,100
and study particular characteristics

732
00:35:11,100 --> 00:35:15,133
of asteroids to the extent
they can from the ground.

733
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:16,967
So we want to find out

734
00:35:16,967 --> 00:35:19,533
what is the composition
of the object,

735
00:35:19,533 --> 00:35:20,734
how fast it's spinning,

736
00:35:20,734 --> 00:35:23,333
whether it's one object
or two objects.

737
00:35:23,333 --> 00:35:26,734
Of course, we want to know
the mass of the object.

738
00:35:26,734 --> 00:35:29,967
For that, we need
to have an accurate idea on its size.

739
00:35:29,967 --> 00:35:32,100
That's where radar comes into play.

740
00:35:32,100 --> 00:35:35,734
[background noise]

741
00:35:35,734 --> 00:35:38,634
Yeah, that's cool to finally see it.

742
00:35:41,967 --> 00:35:45,033
This is the biggest
one in this complex.

743
00:35:46,266 --> 00:35:47,900
It's 70 meters in diameter.

744
00:35:47,900 --> 00:35:50,033
All the other ones are 34.

745
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:56,066
This is the most powerful planetary
radar on Earth.

746
00:35:58,533 --> 00:36:01,634
So here we are at the Goldstone
Solar System Radar

747
00:36:01,634 --> 00:36:05,667
in the middle of the Mojave Desert,
about a few hours' drive

748
00:36:05,667 --> 00:36:08,900
from Pasadena at
the Jet Propulsion Lab.

749
00:36:09,033 --> 00:36:13,934
This is where I connect remotely
to observe near-Earth asteroids.

750
00:36:13,934 --> 00:36:15,300
I'm Shantanu Naidu.

751
00:36:15,300 --> 00:36:17,800
I'm an asteroid radar researcher here

752
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,667
at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

753
00:36:23,934 --> 00:36:25,400
That's amazing.

754
00:36:25,934 --> 00:36:28,200
Whenever an asteroid
comes close to Earth,

755
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,533
we use this radar to observe it,

756
00:36:30,533 --> 00:36:33,433
which can tell us about
the shape of the asteroid.

757
00:36:33,433 --> 00:36:35,166
It can show details on the surface

758
00:36:35,166 --> 00:36:38,667
of the asteroid such as ridges,
concavities, craters.

759
00:36:38,667 --> 00:36:42,600
We can also measure
the precise distance to the asteroid.

760
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:46,667
And then from all of that,
you get really fantastic science,

761
00:36:46,667 --> 00:36:48,934
and then you get that information
you might need

762
00:36:48,934 --> 00:36:52,333
in the event an impact
threat is discovered.

763
00:36:52,667 --> 00:36:55,100
So radar is an active form of observing

764
00:36:55,100 --> 00:36:57,066
an asteroid in the sense
that we generate

765
00:36:57,066 --> 00:36:58,700
our own electromagnetic waves.

766
00:36:58,700 --> 00:37:01,100
We use really high-power transmitters

767
00:37:01,100 --> 00:37:05,133
to transmit electromagnetic waves
in the direction of the asteroid.

768
00:37:05,133 --> 00:37:07,300
The asteroid reflects these waves.

769
00:37:07,300 --> 00:37:09,834
They get distorted
during this process

770
00:37:09,834 --> 00:37:12,066
and they come back towards Earth.

771
00:37:12,066 --> 00:37:15,266
So you have signals
from space coming in,

772
00:37:15,266 --> 00:37:18,767
reflecting off the primary dish,

773
00:37:18,767 --> 00:37:20,734
reflecting onto the secondary dish,

774
00:37:20,734 --> 00:37:22,700
and then they reflect
onto the instruments.

775
00:37:22,700 --> 00:37:27,934
We can compare the distorted
received waveform with what we sent.

776
00:37:28,767 --> 00:37:29,967
And using this comparison,

777
00:37:29,967 --> 00:37:33,266
we are able to generate
highly detailed images

778
00:37:33,266 --> 00:37:35,467
or maps of the asteroid.

779
00:37:37,433 --> 00:37:41,700
One example I can show
you is 2024 MK,

780
00:37:41,700 --> 00:37:44,133
which was a recent
target that we observed.

781
00:37:44,133 --> 00:37:47,333
We were able to obtain
these very high-resolution images

782
00:37:47,333 --> 00:37:50,734
where each pixel
is under 2 meters in resolution.

783
00:37:50,734 --> 00:37:55,367
If I zoom in here, you can see
all these intricate details

784
00:37:55,367 --> 00:37:57,467
on the surface of the asteroid.

785
00:37:57,467 --> 00:38:00,667
You can see these radar dark regions.

786
00:38:00,667 --> 00:38:03,800
You can see,
it's a very irregular shape.

787
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:07,367
There's a lot of things
that look like ridges.

788
00:38:07,533 --> 00:38:09,700
So we can track these features

789
00:38:09,700 --> 00:38:14,367
and we can measure
the spin rate of this asteroid.

790
00:38:15,133 --> 00:38:20,200
[music]

791
00:38:22,834 --> 00:38:25,834
So there's a control
room in the pedestal.

792
00:38:25,834 --> 00:38:28,834
So this is where the telescope
operators sit.

793
00:38:28,834 --> 00:38:31,734
We send them
the orbits of the asteroid.

794
00:38:31,734 --> 00:38:33,333
We send them the observing plan.

795
00:38:33,333 --> 00:38:34,834
We send them the configurations

796
00:38:34,834 --> 00:38:37,066
we want to observe
the asteroids with.

797
00:38:37,066 --> 00:38:39,834
So this is where the telescope
operators sit

798
00:38:39,834 --> 00:38:42,867
and this is where they control
all the equipment from.

799
00:38:42,867 --> 00:38:47,400
And that's where the data gets
collected in the computer behind.

800
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:48,500
And that's what we connect to,

801
00:38:48,500 --> 00:38:51,600
to download the processed
images at JPL.

802
00:38:56,367 --> 00:38:57,700
This seems like a nice setup,

803
00:38:57,700 --> 00:39:01,000
so I'll send
it to the telescope operators.

804
00:39:02,567 --> 00:39:04,367
When we start observing an asteroid,

805
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:06,567
we need a very accurate orbit

806
00:39:06,567 --> 00:39:09,834
so we can point
accurately at the target.

807
00:39:09,834 --> 00:39:12,533
We get a spectra, update the orbit.

808
00:39:12,533 --> 00:39:15,066
We get a course-resolution image.

809
00:39:15,066 --> 00:39:17,200
We update the orbit again.

810
00:39:17,634 --> 00:39:21,066
And so we transmit for a fixed
amount of time,

811
00:39:21,066 --> 00:39:24,533
which is the round-trip light time
to the asteroid.

812
00:39:24,533 --> 00:39:26,667
And as soon as that time elapses,

813
00:39:26,667 --> 00:39:28,667
that is when we start
receiving the echo.

814
00:39:28,667 --> 00:39:31,433
We switch from the transmitter
to the receiver.

815
00:39:31,433 --> 00:39:37,600
It takes a few seconds to travel
a few million miles back into space

816
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:39,667
and reflect off the asteroid.

817
00:39:39,667 --> 00:39:43,233
So we transmit for an entire
round-trip time.

818
00:39:43,500 --> 00:39:48,133
And then as soon as the echoes start
reaching back to the telescope,

819
00:39:48,133 --> 00:39:50,233
that's when we switch
to the receiver.

820
00:39:50,233 --> 00:39:54,634
And then we record the whole transmitted
wave, so for one round-trip time.

821
00:39:54,634 --> 00:39:57,133
And that constitutes one image.

822
00:39:57,567 --> 00:39:59,767
And once we get a good orbit,

823
00:39:59,767 --> 00:40:03,367
we can start getting
these higher-resolution images.

824
00:40:03,367 --> 00:40:07,934
[music]

825
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:09,867
It's always exciting

826
00:40:09,867 --> 00:40:12,900
because it's the first
time anyone is looking

827
00:40:12,900 --> 00:40:16,600
at the features
on the surface of this asteroid.

828
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:18,634
Most of the asteroids
that we observe,

829
00:40:18,634 --> 00:40:20,834
we've not seen them before.

830
00:40:21,233 --> 00:40:24,333
And so whatever you see
with the radar is a surprise.

831
00:40:24,333 --> 00:40:27,367
And a lot of the times
it's discovering something new.

832
00:40:27,367 --> 00:40:30,400
It is very cool to know
that at least for a few minutes

833
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:33,467
or maybe even a few days,
you are the only person

834
00:40:33,467 --> 00:40:36,266
in the world who knows this thing.

835
00:40:36,367 --> 00:40:37,734
It's very exciting.

836
00:40:37,734 --> 00:40:39,567
It's a very exciting feeling.

837
00:40:39,567 --> 00:40:42,634
There's a sense
of responsibility knowing

838
00:40:42,634 --> 00:40:45,700
that I'm part of such
an important team.

839
00:40:45,867 --> 00:40:48,767
And we are all tackling such
an important problem

840
00:40:48,767 --> 00:40:52,233
of asteroid threat
assessment and mitigation.

841
00:40:54,500 --> 00:40:56,333
Let's say we discovered something,

842
00:40:56,333 --> 00:40:59,166
and we only had a small
window to observe

843
00:40:59,166 --> 00:41:01,900
it and quickly turn
around information

844
00:41:01,900 --> 00:41:03,467
about its properties.

845
00:41:03,467 --> 00:41:04,967
What if we find an asteroid

846
00:41:04,967 --> 00:41:07,367
that's going to impact
the Earth next week?

847
00:41:07,367 --> 00:41:08,266
Then all of a sudden,

848
00:41:08,266 --> 00:41:11,300
an opportunity came
up that nature gave us,

849
00:41:11,300 --> 00:41:16,567
an asteroid designated
2023 DZ2 was discovered.

850
00:41:16,834 --> 00:41:18,900
So this object was discovered by a team

851
00:41:18,900 --> 00:41:21,266
in the Canary Islands in Europe.

852
00:41:21,266 --> 00:41:23,567
When it was discovered,
the observations were directly sent

853
00:41:23,567 --> 00:41:26,567
to the Minor Planet Center,
and then we publish everything.

854
00:41:26,567 --> 00:41:29,000
The role of the Minor Planet Center

855
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:32,500
is to distinguish what is known
and what is not known.

856
00:41:32,500 --> 00:41:35,567
We define them
as a complete new object.

857
00:41:35,767 --> 00:41:37,834
And so in the following couple of hours,

858
00:41:37,834 --> 00:41:39,567
a lot of observers
from all over the world,

859
00:41:39,567 --> 00:41:40,767
they start observing it.

860
00:41:40,767 --> 00:41:42,834
Then it was a really
large impact probabilities,

861
00:41:42,834 --> 00:41:44,667
which means
it could impact the earth.

862
00:41:44,667 --> 00:41:46,400
Over a period of a few days

863
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:50,100
it had a high impact
potential three years

864
00:41:50,100 --> 00:41:51,600
from the discovery date.

865
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:55,133
And originally it had a decently
high probability

866
00:41:55,133 --> 00:41:58,700
of hitting Earth
at its first discovery,

867
00:41:58,700 --> 00:42:02,266
and then it was followed up
and the probability went up.

868
00:42:02,266 --> 00:42:03,967
And then this impact
probability stayed high

869
00:42:03,967 --> 00:42:06,200
even if people were sending
more and more observations,

870
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:09,100
which means that the path
on which the asteroid was,

871
00:42:09,100 --> 00:42:11,033
was really towards the Earth.

872
00:42:11,033 --> 00:42:13,934
2023 DZ2 was a significant asteroid.

873
00:42:13,934 --> 00:42:16,934
That kind of close approach
to the Earth of a rock that size

874
00:42:16,934 --> 00:42:20,100
might only happen
a handful of times per century.

875
00:42:20,100 --> 00:42:22,567
And then eventually it turned out
that it was coming really close,

876
00:42:22,567 --> 00:42:23,834
but it wasn't hitting the earth.

877
00:42:23,834 --> 00:42:29,133
Other observations had been made
to take 2023 DZ2 off the risk list,

878
00:42:29,166 --> 00:42:30,200
so that was a good thing.

879
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:33,467
Suddenly the probability
of hitting Earth goes down,

880
00:42:33,467 --> 00:42:36,467
and that's because
the more points you gather,

881
00:42:36,467 --> 00:42:38,767
the better refined
your orbit can become.

882
00:42:38,767 --> 00:42:41,300
At NASA, we thought
this would be a good opportunity

883
00:42:41,300 --> 00:42:45,200
to launch an observing
campaign in coordination

884
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:47,433
with the International Asteroid
Warning Network,

885
00:42:47,433 --> 00:42:50,500
to try to get the worldwide
community together

886
00:42:50,500 --> 00:42:53,800
to gather observations
about physical properties

887
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:56,867
of an asteroid and turn
that around quickly.

888
00:42:56,867 --> 00:43:00,266
So we essentially had a very short
five-day campaign

889
00:43:00,266 --> 00:43:04,533
where we had to reduce
the impact risk by observing

890
00:43:04,533 --> 00:43:07,734
the object and collecting
more positions along its orbit,

891
00:43:07,734 --> 00:43:09,834
understand its rotation period,

892
00:43:09,834 --> 00:43:13,667
understand its composition,
try and observe it with radar

893
00:43:13,667 --> 00:43:16,967
to get some physical information
like the size and volume,

894
00:43:16,967 --> 00:43:20,066
and try and input
all this information

895
00:43:20,066 --> 00:43:21,567
in an impact hazard model

896
00:43:21,567 --> 00:43:24,000
to see what would be the impact
on the ground.

897
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,200
So we were able to pull
all of this stuff off

898
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:27,900
within a matter of five days.

899
00:43:27,900 --> 00:43:30,133
We took this real-world opportunity

900
00:43:30,133 --> 00:43:34,166
to exercise the whole
system and campaign

901
00:43:34,166 --> 00:43:38,567
that would be done
if a potential impactor was found.

902
00:43:38,567 --> 00:43:40,834
In case we were ever faced
with a situation

903
00:43:40,834 --> 00:43:43,133
where we needed to do that,

904
00:43:43,133 --> 00:43:46,600
to measure the properties
of an asteroid during a short window

905
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:50,400
in a coordinated fashion
with the worldwide community.

906
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:53,634
So we used the Goldstone
Radar to observe it.

907
00:43:53,967 --> 00:43:56,400
And we managed to obtain
images with the resolutions

908
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:58,767
of under four meters
on this asteroid,

909
00:43:58,767 --> 00:44:01,834
which showed
that it was an irregular body.

910
00:44:01,834 --> 00:44:04,634
It was spinning extremely rapidly.

911
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:10,400
Based on the visible extents
in the radar images, we could tell

912
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:13,333
that the asteroid was somewhere
about 30 to 40 meters,

913
00:44:13,333 --> 00:44:16,367
so a bit smaller
than what we could estimate

914
00:44:16,367 --> 00:44:18,867
using just the visible.

915
00:44:19,300 --> 00:44:23,367
It was an important target
to practice working together

916
00:44:23,367 --> 00:44:28,400
to exercise the systems in order
to refine the orbit and improve

917
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:31,367
the characterization of the asteroid.

918
00:44:32,433 --> 00:44:33,667
So my students and I,

919
00:44:33,667 --> 00:44:36,600
we observed this object using
telescopes, one on campus.

920
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,467
We also used the NASA
Infrared Telescope Facility,

921
00:44:39,467 --> 00:44:41,100
which is on Mauna Kea, Hawaii.

922
00:44:41,100 --> 00:44:43,734
It is one of the few telescopes
in the world that is capable

923
00:44:43,734 --> 00:44:46,233
of telling what asteroids
are made of.

924
00:44:46,233 --> 00:44:48,700
So we try and do geology
with a telescope.

925
00:44:48,700 --> 00:44:50,500
We're trying to do prospecting.

926
00:44:50,500 --> 00:44:52,133
Trying to understand what minerals

927
00:44:52,133 --> 00:44:55,767
are there on these asteroids
and using those mineral signatures,

928
00:44:55,767 --> 00:44:59,900
the spectral fingerprints
to identify what fingerprint matches

929
00:44:59,900 --> 00:45:03,734
with those of meteorites
that we have in the lab.

930
00:45:03,900 --> 00:45:06,367
So that's what we were trying
to do with DZ2.

931
00:45:06,367 --> 00:45:09,066
This is the 2023 DZ2.

932
00:45:10,166 --> 00:45:13,967
This is the motion, the object that's moving
there is DZ2, correct?

933
00:45:13,967 --> 00:45:15,834
Yeah, so you can see it moving
through the star field.

934
00:45:15,834 --> 00:45:19,767
Star field and that's the spectrum, the visible
spectrum right next to it.

935
00:45:19,767 --> 00:45:21,800
The first order visible spectrum?

936
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:22,333
Yeah.

937
00:45:22,333 --> 00:45:24,266
So in the end, what we assessed about DZ2

938
00:45:24,266 --> 00:45:28,100
was that it was much
brighter than we expected

939
00:45:28,100 --> 00:45:29,700
because when an asteroid
is discovered,

940
00:45:29,700 --> 00:45:31,967
we don't know
how bright or dark it is.

941
00:45:31,967 --> 00:45:34,100
So that says a range in size.

942
00:45:34,567 --> 00:45:36,567
You can slowly narrow down the size

943
00:45:36,567 --> 00:45:39,100
depending on more
characterization information.

944
00:45:39,100 --> 00:45:43,600
So if you have radar, that gives
you a very accurate diameter,

945
00:45:43,634 --> 00:45:45,300
pretty close to the final thing.

946
00:45:45,300 --> 00:45:47,300
If you have thermal
infrared measurements,

947
00:45:47,300 --> 00:45:49,133
you can constrain the observation.

948
00:45:49,133 --> 00:45:50,934
So you can constrain
the diameter for that,

949
00:45:50,934 --> 00:45:52,266
but you also have composition.

950
00:45:52,266 --> 00:45:55,600
Composition tells you something
about how bright the object is.

951
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:57,700
So that gives you an additional
piece of information.

952
00:45:57,700 --> 00:46:01,066
So no one technique gives
you the ultimate answer,

953
00:46:01,066 --> 00:46:04,533
but complimentary sets of information
from different telescopes,

954
00:46:04,533 --> 00:46:08,467
different techniques,
kind of let us converge to one answer.

955
00:46:08,467 --> 00:46:12,300
In the case of DZ2,
what we've done is with the IRTF,

956
00:46:12,300 --> 00:46:13,867
we spectrally characterized.

957
00:46:13,867 --> 00:46:18,033
We looked at the light reflected
off DZ2 in different wavelengths.

958
00:46:18,033 --> 00:46:21,533
And in the infrared,
in the wavelengths we cannot see,

959
00:46:21,533 --> 00:46:24,467
but rattlesnakes can see,
kind of like heat seeking stuff.

960
00:46:24,467 --> 00:46:26,734
What we see is a unique
spectral signature

961
00:46:26,734 --> 00:46:29,900
for a specific mineral
that is only found

962
00:46:29,900 --> 00:46:32,967
in this particular type
of meteorite called aubrites.

963
00:46:32,967 --> 00:46:35,200
We have a few of those
in our collection,

964
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,767
both that fell on the Earth,
fell in Antarctica.

965
00:46:37,767 --> 00:46:39,233
So here's an example of it.

966
00:46:39,233 --> 00:46:42,166
This is an aubrite,
it's essentially white.

967
00:46:42,166 --> 00:46:44,600
It's reflecting 60%
to 70% of the light.

968
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:47,033
What we do is that take
this meteorite,

969
00:46:47,033 --> 00:46:49,433
crush them into a powder and put them

970
00:46:49,433 --> 00:46:53,867
in a lab spectrometer to get
the spectrum of this meteorite.

971
00:46:53,867 --> 00:46:56,166
In other words,
how is light interacting

972
00:46:56,166 --> 00:46:58,600
with it at different wavelengths?

973
00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:00,700
So what we do here
is that we take a sample

974
00:47:00,734 --> 00:47:03,834
and then we crush it
and we have it being

975
00:47:03,834 --> 00:47:06,433
observed by the spectrometer
that we have it here.

976
00:47:06,433 --> 00:47:08,400
Instead of the Sun,
we have a light source

977
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:12,834
that is reflecting off
the sample and we're collecting

978
00:47:12,834 --> 00:47:15,867
visible near-infrared spectra
off that sample that we have.

979
00:47:15,867 --> 00:47:19,834
Spectrum is nothing but light split
into many wavelengths.

980
00:47:19,834 --> 00:47:21,634
And using that spectrum, we compare

981
00:47:21,634 --> 00:47:24,934
the same thing we get from the NASA
infrared telescope.

982
00:47:24,934 --> 00:47:28,166
And we can try and match
the spectrum of the meteorite

983
00:47:28,166 --> 00:47:31,767
in the lab versus
the telescopic spectrum

984
00:47:32,033 --> 00:47:33,667
off the near-Earth object itself.

985
00:47:33,667 --> 00:47:36,033
And by taking this spectrum and comparing

986
00:47:36,033 --> 00:47:38,533
to the one that's coming
off the telescope

987
00:47:38,533 --> 00:47:39,634
off the near-Earth asteroid,

988
00:47:39,634 --> 00:47:41,066
we should be able to compare and tell

989
00:47:41,066 --> 00:47:42,767
what the near-Earth
asteroid is made of.

990
00:47:42,767 --> 00:47:44,266
Because it was so bright,

991
00:47:44,266 --> 00:47:46,166
you don't need
the object to be that big.

992
00:47:46,166 --> 00:47:47,333
So it ended up being smaller

993
00:47:47,333 --> 00:47:49,834
than what we expected
of the size range,

994
00:47:49,834 --> 00:47:52,700
and because if it's smaller,
hopefully we pray

995
00:47:52,700 --> 00:47:54,834
that the atmosphere takes care of it

996
00:47:54,834 --> 00:47:56,734
and we won't have much
impact on the ground.

997
00:47:56,734 --> 00:47:59,367
So that's what ended up happening,
is that we managed to nail

998
00:47:59,367 --> 00:48:02,634
the composition
of the object very well using

999
00:48:02,634 --> 00:48:04,333
the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility.

1000
00:48:04,333 --> 00:48:09,700
So 2023 DZ2 was a really
interesting example

1001
00:48:09,700 --> 00:48:15,066
of planetary defense working
on an international scale.

1002
00:48:15,300 --> 00:48:19,166
So it's really a resounding
success in multiple organizations

1003
00:48:19,166 --> 00:48:21,066
across the planet coming together.

1004
00:48:21,066 --> 00:48:23,266
And the fact that we were
able to discover it,

1005
00:48:23,266 --> 00:48:25,734
characterize it,
determine it was a risk,

1006
00:48:25,734 --> 00:48:28,333
and then remove that risk
all before it passed close

1007
00:48:28,333 --> 00:48:30,867
to the planet,
was a pretty amazing feat.

1008
00:48:30,867 --> 00:48:35,133
Let's say we do find something
that poses an impact threat to Earth.

1009
00:48:35,133 --> 00:48:36,033
What next?

1010
00:48:36,033 --> 00:48:39,300
The day is coming
when Earth will get impacted.

1011
00:48:39,300 --> 00:48:40,734
The dinosaurs went extinct

1012
00:48:40,734 --> 00:48:42,300
because they didn't
have a space program.

1013
00:48:42,300 --> 00:48:43,367
We do have one.

1014
00:48:43,367 --> 00:48:46,834
We can, so why stop there?

1015
00:48:58,967 --> 00:49:03,700
10, 9, 8, 7, 6,

1016
00:49:03,700 --> 00:49:08,066
5, 4, 3, 2, 1,

1017
00:49:10,233 --> 00:49:14,500
and liftoff of the Falcon 9 and DART

1018
00:49:14,500 --> 00:49:17,166
on NASA's first
planetary defense test

1019
00:49:17,166 --> 00:49:20,767
to intentionally
crash into an asteroid.

1020
00:49:25,734 --> 00:49:30,700
We're embarking
on a new era of humankind.

1021
00:49:32,100 --> 00:49:37,367
We're doing this mission to prove
that we can deflect an asteroid.

1022
00:49:37,367 --> 00:49:39,133
Even if we do everything right,

1023
00:49:39,166 --> 00:49:42,567
our sensors work
well, our spacecraft is doing well.

1024
00:49:42,567 --> 00:49:45,500
Even then, we might still miss.

1025
00:49:57,100 --> 00:50:00,800
4, 3, 2, 1.

1026
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:05,367
[applause]

1027
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:08,033
For the first time ever,

1028
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:15,033
humanity has changed
the orbit of a planetary body.

1029
00:50:15,767 --> 00:50:22,200
NASA confirms that DART
successfully changed

1030
00:50:22,266 --> 00:50:25,133
the targeted asteroid's trajectory.

1031
00:50:25,133 --> 00:50:29,467
Now, this is a watershed
moment for planetary defense

1032
00:50:30,500 --> 00:50:33,400
and a watershed moment for humanity.

1033
00:50:34,500 --> 00:50:39,667
[music]

1034
00:50:55,333 --> 00:50:57,500
As was demonstrated
with the DART mission,

1035
00:50:57,500 --> 00:50:59,500
if an asteroid were ever discovered

1036
00:50:59,500 --> 00:51:01,800
that could pose
an impact threat to Earth,

1037
00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:07,500
we do have the capability
to deflect an asteroid in space

1038
00:51:07,500 --> 00:51:10,100
and to change its orbit.

1039
00:51:10,634 --> 00:51:12,767
Once we've found an object

1040
00:51:13,100 --> 00:51:15,667
and determined that
it could be an impact threat

1041
00:51:15,667 --> 00:51:18,967
to the Earth,
what do we do to mitigate it?

1042
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:25,066
Eventually, we have to be ready
to nudge an asteroid off its course.

1043
00:51:25,066 --> 00:51:27,767
NASA has recently
demonstrated a particular type

1044
00:51:27,767 --> 00:51:30,634
of mitigation technique
that we call kinetic impact.

1045
00:51:30,634 --> 00:51:32,834
In case there was an asteroid
coming towards

1046
00:51:32,834 --> 00:51:36,100
Earth and you are there,
you can actually stop it.

1047
00:51:36,100 --> 00:51:38,066
That's kind of fantastic.

1048
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:40,800
Our Double Asteroid
Redirection Test, DART,

1049
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:44,700
was a demonstration of using
a kinetic impactor technique.

1050
00:51:44,700 --> 00:51:46,066
And the idea is pretty simple.

1051
00:51:46,066 --> 00:51:47,800
You basically just take a spacecraft

1052
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:50,500
and you run it into an asteroid
and bump it out of the way.

1053
00:51:50,500 --> 00:51:53,667
What? You think science
fiction but this is real.

1054
00:51:53,667 --> 00:51:55,400
Never in my life would I have thought

1055
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:58,400
I would take a couple
hundred million dollar spacecraft

1056
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:01,100
and crash it into an asteroid.

1057
00:52:01,166 --> 00:52:05,066
Its main goal was to go
to an asteroid with its moon, to hit

1058
00:52:05,066 --> 00:52:09,467
the moon and see how much
it changed the orbit of the moon.

1059
00:52:09,467 --> 00:52:11,200
The moonlet, Dimorphos,

1060
00:52:11,200 --> 00:52:13,033
which orbits the asteroid, Didymos,

1061
00:52:13,033 --> 00:52:15,667
in order to change
Dimorphos' orbit and show

1062
00:52:15,667 --> 00:52:18,600
that we can deflect incoming
asteroids if we need to.

1063
00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:20,800
DART will only be changing the period

1064
00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:24,200
of the orbit of Dimorphos
by a tiny amount.

1065
00:52:24,333 --> 00:52:27,533
And really that's all that's needed
in the event that an asteroid

1066
00:52:27,533 --> 00:52:32,233
is discovered well ahead of time
before it might impact Earth.

1067
00:52:32,233 --> 00:52:35,000
In space just a little
bit is just enough

1068
00:52:35,000 --> 00:52:37,533
to make an asteroid actually miss us.

1069
00:52:37,533 --> 00:52:39,567
So behind me, you see the spacecraft.

1070
00:52:39,567 --> 00:52:42,500
It's really cool to see
it coming together in real life.

1071
00:52:42,500 --> 00:52:44,767
It is fantastic to see
it in real life.

1072
00:52:44,767 --> 00:52:48,233
To see it turn
from ideas into real pieces

1073
00:52:48,233 --> 00:52:50,400
that are going to go into space.

1074
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:54,867
The solar arrays will actually roll
out to 28 feet in length.

1075
00:52:54,867 --> 00:52:56,400
Once the solar arrays are deployed,

1076
00:52:56,400 --> 00:52:58,100
it's going to be the size
of a school bus.

1077
00:52:58,100 --> 00:53:00,100
As the solar array opens out,

1078
00:53:00,100 --> 00:53:03,333
it's going to swing
out in this direction.

1079
00:53:04,767 --> 00:53:06,467
To me, the most important thing

1080
00:53:06,467 --> 00:53:09,900
and the most exciting things
is all the technical challenges.

1081
00:53:09,900 --> 00:53:12,100
My job is primarily to make sure

1082
00:53:12,100 --> 00:53:14,233
all the systems
on the spacecraft work together.

1083
00:53:14,233 --> 00:53:16,667
On top, you see
the NEXT-C thruster.

1084
00:53:16,667 --> 00:53:19,533
Over here is our star tracker,

1085
00:53:19,533 --> 00:53:21,767
and then over here
is our high gain antenna.

1086
00:53:21,767 --> 00:53:23,533
My job is to make sure we launch.

1087
00:53:23,533 --> 00:53:26,066
My job is to make sure
we're able to receive data back.

1088
00:53:26,066 --> 00:53:27,800
My job is to make sure we hit.

1089
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:30,567
There's DRACO on the bottom
of the spacecraft

1090
00:53:30,567 --> 00:53:33,800
as well, of course,
as integration and test.

1091
00:53:36,934 --> 00:53:39,367
The asteroid
is only two football fields in size.

1092
00:53:39,367 --> 00:53:42,467
We're flying
at over six kilometers a second.

1093
00:53:42,467 --> 00:53:45,634
30 days out, we see
one pixel on our field of view.

1094
00:53:45,634 --> 00:53:48,033
You can see Didymos
and Dimorphos is one point of light.

1095
00:53:48,033 --> 00:53:51,433
About four hours out,
our spacecraft becomes autonomous.

1096
00:53:51,433 --> 00:53:53,800
And then that's where everything
gets really exciting.

1097
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,333
And you actually are seeing impact.

1098
00:53:59,667 --> 00:54:03,800
The algorithm has to identify
and hit the target

1099
00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:06,066
in the field of view of the camera.

1100
00:54:06,066 --> 00:54:07,000
And so you could just imagine

1101
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:09,333
if it was a human
being joysticking this.

1102
00:54:09,333 --> 00:54:12,634
Because we don't know for sure
what the asteroids look like,

1103
00:54:12,634 --> 00:54:15,233
our simulation gives
us the capability

1104
00:54:15,233 --> 00:54:18,000
to use different asteroid shapes

1105
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:22,033
and asteroid objects to see
that our SMART Nav algorithm

1106
00:54:22,033 --> 00:54:24,533
performs against all these unknowns.

1107
00:54:24,533 --> 00:54:27,634
Astronomers are going to measure
how much DART changed

1108
00:54:27,634 --> 00:54:31,300
Dimorphos' orbit using ground-based
telescopes all over the world.

1109
00:54:31,300 --> 00:54:33,834
These curves show
the brightness change

1110
00:54:33,834 --> 00:54:36,900
due to Dimorphos moving
in front of and behind Didymos.

1111
00:54:36,900 --> 00:54:40,600
We can tell how quickly Dimorphos
is moving around Didymos.

1112
00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:43,300
We make these measurements
before DART arrives,

1113
00:54:43,300 --> 00:54:45,033
and then this is the same
technique that we'll use

1114
00:54:45,033 --> 00:54:50,166
after the impact to determine
how much we've changed the orbit by.

1115
00:54:56,500 --> 00:54:58,400
This is Lowell Observatory.

1116
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:00,800
Lowell is one of many observatories
around the world

1117
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:02,500
that will be observing
the DART impact,

1118
00:55:02,500 --> 00:55:05,467
NASA's first ever planetary
defense test mission,

1119
00:55:05,467 --> 00:55:08,700
to see how much
a spacecraft impact can deflect

1120
00:55:08,700 --> 00:55:09,900
an asteroid in its orbit.

1121
00:55:09,900 --> 00:55:11,567
So this is where Pluto was discovered

1122
00:55:11,567 --> 00:55:15,667
and we are still doing research
in all areas of astronomy today.

1123
00:55:15,667 --> 00:55:17,467
So let's go check it out.

1124
00:55:21,500 --> 00:55:24,567
This is the Pluto telescope,
the telescope that was used

1125
00:55:24,567 --> 00:55:27,567
to discover Pluto almost
100 years ago.

1126
00:55:27,567 --> 00:55:28,967
So here we are at the Clark Telescope.

1127
00:55:28,967 --> 00:55:32,900
This is where,
Percival Lowell sat to observe Mars.

1128
00:55:33,734 --> 00:55:35,700
Let's head on over to
the Lowell Discovery Telescope

1129
00:55:35,700 --> 00:55:37,066
about an hour south of Flagstaff,

1130
00:55:37,066 --> 00:55:38,834
which is where we are
going to be collecting

1131
00:55:38,834 --> 00:55:40,400
data for the DART mission.

1132
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:43,567
The reason we're all the way
out here in the middle of this forest

1133
00:55:43,567 --> 00:55:46,567
is that we have
really dark skies here.

1134
00:55:55,133 --> 00:55:57,066
And this is the Lowell
Discovery Telescope.

1135
00:55:57,066 --> 00:55:59,567
This is what a 4.3
meter telescope looks like.

1136
00:55:59,567 --> 00:56:03,033
This is what we'll be using
to study Didymos and Dimorphos

1137
00:56:03,033 --> 00:56:05,834
in the days and weeks
after DART impact.

1138
00:56:05,834 --> 00:56:09,500
The DART spacecraft will be hitting
an asteroid called Dimorphos.

1139
00:56:09,500 --> 00:56:12,100
It's special because it's a binary
asteroid, which means

1140
00:56:12,100 --> 00:56:15,200
a satellite around a larger asteroid
called Didymos.

1141
00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:17,700
DART will actually
be hitting Dimorphos.

1142
00:56:17,700 --> 00:56:21,166
What we will be measuring
is how much DART changes

1143
00:56:21,166 --> 00:56:23,934
the orbit of Dimorphos
around Didymos.

1144
00:56:23,934 --> 00:56:26,500
This is an important test
for planetary

1145
00:56:26,500 --> 00:56:28,333
defense mitigation strategies

1146
00:56:28,333 --> 00:56:30,433
in case we ever have
to do this for real.

1147
00:56:30,433 --> 00:56:32,767
The Lowell Discovery Telescope
is one of many telescopes

1148
00:56:32,767 --> 00:56:34,433
around the world which will be used

1149
00:56:34,433 --> 00:56:36,634
to study Didymos and Dimorphos.

1150
00:56:36,634 --> 00:56:39,000
It's really a global
coordinated effort.

1151
00:56:39,000 --> 00:56:42,433
And what we're looking at here
is a large 4.3 meter primary mirror

1152
00:56:42,433 --> 00:56:44,767
that's in the middle
of the telescope tube here.

1153
00:56:44,767 --> 00:56:46,800
Up at the top is a secondary mirror.

1154
00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:49,033
The secondary mirror up
top there is what is focusing

1155
00:56:49,033 --> 00:56:51,900
the light down onto the instruments
and allows us to take images

1156
00:56:51,900 --> 00:56:54,867
with the camera that's located
down at the bottom.

1157
00:56:54,867 --> 00:56:58,300
This is maybe one of my favorite
hidden rooms at the telescope.

1158
00:56:58,300 --> 00:57:00,233
We're standing inside the telescope

1159
00:57:00,233 --> 00:57:03,867
and underneath the telescopes,
100 tons above your head,

1160
00:57:03,867 --> 00:57:06,934
held up by this and this,
which is cool.

1161
00:57:07,233 --> 00:57:08,533
It's sort of, as you can see,

1162
00:57:08,533 --> 00:57:12,100
the highest peak around here
just over 8,000 feet.

1163
00:57:12,100 --> 00:57:13,133
I come up here for sunset.

1164
00:57:13,133 --> 00:57:17,000
You see how Sun's setting
right there? It's perfect.

1165
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:19,200
For DART,
we're going to be collecting

1166
00:57:19,200 --> 00:57:20,834
images of the night sky.

1167
00:57:20,834 --> 00:57:22,000
And typically an observer would be here

1168
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:23,600
in front of one
of these consoles controlling

1169
00:57:23,600 --> 00:57:24,700
the instrument and taking images

1170
00:57:24,700 --> 00:57:26,967
like these as they're coming
in off the telescope.

1171
00:57:26,967 --> 00:57:29,467
DART is really a sort of before
and after experiment.

1172
00:57:29,467 --> 00:57:31,333
We need to understand the system

1173
00:57:31,333 --> 00:57:33,600
before the spacecraft
intentionally impacts.

1174
00:57:33,600 --> 00:57:34,767
And then we have to understand

1175
00:57:34,767 --> 00:57:36,867
what the outcome
of that impact event is.

1176
00:57:36,867 --> 00:57:40,367
As we watch from the Earth,
Dimorphos will pass in front

1177
00:57:40,367 --> 00:57:42,634
of Didymos and behind Didymos.

1178
00:57:42,634 --> 00:57:44,934
What we will be doing
with those images is measuring

1179
00:57:44,934 --> 00:57:47,767
the brightness of Didymos
in those images and looking

1180
00:57:47,767 --> 00:57:49,200
at how that brightness changes.

1181
00:57:49,200 --> 00:57:53,734
And those dips and brightness allow us
to measure when these eclipse happen

1182
00:57:53,734 --> 00:57:56,433
and measure the orbit
period of Dimorphos.

1183
00:57:56,433 --> 00:57:58,834
And so you have essentially
a fixed star field here.

1184
00:57:58,834 --> 00:58:01,467
All the white dots are stars
of different brightness.

1185
00:58:01,467 --> 00:58:03,634
And moving through this field
is Didymos and Dimorphos,

1186
00:58:03,634 --> 00:58:06,934
which again, we can't distinguish
them as discrete points of light,

1187
00:58:06,934 --> 00:58:10,033
but we have that small object moving

1188
00:58:10,033 --> 00:58:11,900
through the field of view.

1189
00:58:11,900 --> 00:58:14,634
So after impact,
we will then be able to go back

1190
00:58:14,634 --> 00:58:16,600
and start observing intensely,

1191
00:58:16,600 --> 00:58:19,700
looking for those mutual events,
those eclipse events

1192
00:58:19,700 --> 00:58:22,900
of Dimorphos passing
in front of and behind Didymos.

1193
00:58:22,900 --> 00:58:25,333
And on each one of these frames,
we're measuring

1194
00:58:25,333 --> 00:58:28,033
the brightness to assess
whether or not it's undergoing

1195
00:58:28,033 --> 00:58:32,500
one of these events where Dimorphos
is passing in front of or behind.

1196
00:58:32,500 --> 00:58:34,066
This is such a cool experiment

1197
00:58:34,066 --> 00:58:37,266
and it's such a singular experiment.
Using the ground-based telescopes

1198
00:58:37,266 --> 00:58:40,433
like this one and others
around the world to watch

1199
00:58:40,433 --> 00:58:43,400
the system and see how it's affected
by this impact event

1200
00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:45,834
because that's really
what's going to give us

1201
00:58:45,834 --> 00:58:49,800
the answer to what did
DART do at the time of impact.

1202
00:58:49,800 --> 00:58:52,000
And that will be exciting
to see how that evolves

1203
00:58:52,000 --> 00:58:55,567
over the days and weeks
following that impact.

1204
00:59:01,533 --> 00:59:03,667
Good afternoon, everybody.

1205
00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:05,066
Two weeks ago,

1206
00:59:05,066 --> 00:59:10,066
we conducted humanity's first
planetary defense test.

1207
00:59:10,066 --> 00:59:13,600
The team has measured
that the orbital period

1208
00:59:13,600 --> 00:59:15,967
of Dimorphos has changed.

1209
00:59:15,967 --> 00:59:18,467
Astronomers have been
using telescopes

1210
00:59:18,467 --> 00:59:24,033
on Earth to measure
how much that time has changed.

1211
00:59:24,066 --> 00:59:27,600
These telescopes have been observing
this system nightly.

1212
00:59:27,600 --> 00:59:30,433
And that's what you see going across here
on this graph on the top.

1213
00:59:30,433 --> 00:59:33,800
Just this nightly telescopic
data night after night after night.

1214
00:59:33,800 --> 00:59:36,133
And it resulted in moving an asteroid

1215
00:59:36,133 --> 00:59:38,467
and actually changing its orbit

1216
00:59:38,467 --> 00:59:40,533
by a few millimeters per second.

1217
00:59:40,533 --> 00:59:42,000
Now, that doesn't sound like a lot,

1218
00:59:42,000 --> 00:59:45,233
but acting over a long period
of time, it could be enough

1219
00:59:45,233 --> 00:59:47,100
to help move something out of the way

1220
00:59:47,100 --> 00:59:49,033
of the Earth
should we ever need to do so.

1221
00:59:49,033 --> 00:59:51,667
It was expected to be a huge success

1222
00:59:51,667 --> 00:59:55,400
if it only slowed the orbit
by about 10 minutes,

1223
00:59:56,266 --> 01:00:00,066
but it actually slowed
it by 32 minutes.

1224
01:00:00,066 --> 01:00:01,934
The whole world
has been watching this.

1225
01:00:01,934 --> 01:00:04,066
[applause]

1226
01:00:04,066 --> 01:00:05,600
Wow.

1227
01:00:05,767 --> 01:00:08,967
What an exciting day
for the DART team.

1228
01:00:08,967 --> 01:00:14,600
In case you're keeping score,
humanity one, asteroids zero.

1229
01:00:15,834 --> 01:00:18,233
The dinosaurs are made
completely extinct

1230
01:00:18,233 --> 01:00:20,867
by an asteroid impact
so many years ago.

1231
01:00:20,867 --> 01:00:23,767
Here we are, we can actually
do something about it.

1232
01:00:23,767 --> 01:00:26,300
I think this is just wonderful.

1233
01:00:28,834 --> 01:00:32,100
There are times
in a year or in a decade

1234
01:00:32,133 --> 01:00:34,233
when you are in awe of humanity,
you know what I mean?

1235
01:00:34,233 --> 01:00:35,567
Despite everything that happens

1236
01:00:35,567 --> 01:00:38,200
in the world on a day-to-day
basis in a new cycle,

1237
01:00:38,200 --> 01:00:41,867
there are times when human beings
come together to do great things.

1238
01:00:41,867 --> 01:00:45,033
I think for me personally,
DART was one of those moments,

1239
01:00:45,033 --> 01:00:47,700
where you are just in absolute
awe of humanity.

1240
01:00:47,700 --> 01:00:49,700
Here we are, taking a spacecraft

1241
01:00:49,700 --> 01:00:53,800
and flying it hundreds
of millions of kilometers away,

1242
01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:56,834
and hitting an object
with that precision.

1243
01:00:56,834 --> 01:00:58,934
And it all happens in a blink of an eye.

1244
01:00:58,934 --> 01:01:00,133
You know what I mean?

1245
01:01:00,133 --> 01:01:02,266
It was not a long mission.

1246
01:01:02,834 --> 01:01:05,000
I think I'm very, very proud
of my colleagues

1247
01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:06,166
who managed to pull that off.

1248
01:01:06,166 --> 01:01:08,166
It demonstrates how far we've come

1249
01:01:08,166 --> 01:01:11,467
as a species in the last
few centuries even.

1250
01:01:11,467 --> 01:01:14,367
From the first rockets
launched into outer space,

1251
01:01:14,367 --> 01:01:16,834
the first asteroids being discovered,

1252
01:01:16,834 --> 01:01:20,533
to the ability to realize
what threat asteroids pose

1253
01:01:20,533 --> 01:01:24,400
to the planet,
and now the capability demonstrated

1254
01:01:24,433 --> 01:01:30,033
to send a spacecraft to an asteroid
that's in orbit around the Sun,

1255
01:01:30,033 --> 01:01:32,767
and show that we have the capability
if we have enough

1256
01:01:32,767 --> 01:01:35,300
lead time to alter its orbit.

1257
01:01:35,300 --> 01:01:38,867
That to me was just a fascinating
moment in human history.

1258
01:01:38,867 --> 01:01:40,600
Oh yeah, I did watch it.

1259
01:01:42,500 --> 01:01:44,166
It was super cool.

1260
01:01:44,166 --> 01:01:46,033
I did watch the DART Mission.

1261
01:01:46,033 --> 01:01:47,700
Yes, I have watched The DART Impact.

1262
01:01:47,700 --> 01:01:49,300
That was pretty amazing.

1263
01:01:49,300 --> 01:01:51,634
The last video
that they were showing live

1264
01:01:51,634 --> 01:01:54,767
and then you saw everything
up until to the last moment.

1265
01:01:54,767 --> 01:01:57,066
I thought that there was such
a big achievement,

1266
01:01:57,066 --> 01:02:00,200
something like people
work on it for so long,

1267
01:02:00,200 --> 01:02:03,900
and it proves that we can do it.

1268
01:02:03,900 --> 01:02:05,667
The DART impact day was one

1269
01:02:05,667 --> 01:02:08,667
of the most exciting
days in my career.

1270
01:02:09,066 --> 01:02:11,500
We watched the impact here at JPL.

1271
01:02:11,500 --> 01:02:14,834
The impact was bigger
than I had expected,

1272
01:02:15,000 --> 01:02:16,367
but I was also excited

1273
01:02:16,367 --> 01:02:20,033
because we had an observing run

1274
01:02:20,166 --> 01:02:24,400
for observing Didymos just
about 11 hours after impact.

1275
01:02:24,400 --> 01:02:26,100
It would be the first opportunity

1276
01:02:26,100 --> 01:02:30,066
to see how much
of an effect the impact had.

1277
01:02:30,066 --> 01:02:34,433
Didymos was all I was thinking
about the whole day.

1278
01:02:34,433 --> 01:02:35,467
I couldn't sleep.

1279
01:02:35,467 --> 01:02:39,300
The observing run started
at about 3:00 AM that night,

1280
01:02:39,300 --> 01:02:43,667
and we had our first echo
of Didymos after impact.

1281
01:02:43,667 --> 01:02:47,166
We weren't expecting to measure
the deflection that night,

1282
01:02:47,166 --> 01:02:51,967
but the echo was off
from where it should have been

1283
01:02:51,967 --> 01:02:53,734
if there was no DART Impact.

1284
01:02:53,734 --> 01:02:55,500
I couldn't believe my eyes.

1285
01:02:55,500 --> 01:02:59,367
I was like,
either there's some problems

1286
01:02:59,367 --> 01:03:00,767
in the measurement,

1287
01:03:00,767 --> 01:03:05,867
or this is a real detection
just 12 hours after impact.

1288
01:03:06,133 --> 01:03:08,900
This was the first
Goldstone radar detection

1289
01:03:08,900 --> 01:03:13,166
of the effect of the DART
impact on the orbit of Dimorphos.

1290
01:03:13,166 --> 01:03:16,266
The yellow circle, it circles

1291
01:03:16,266 --> 01:03:19,233
the location where the echo
from Dimorphos

1292
01:03:19,233 --> 01:03:23,400
should have been had
there been no DART impact.

1293
01:03:23,700 --> 01:03:28,800
Then the red circles the echo
of Dimorphos, which you can see

1294
01:03:28,800 --> 01:03:30,700
is this white dot here.

1295
01:03:30,867 --> 01:03:32,400
You can see it's quite far away

1296
01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:35,567
from where it should have
been without the impact.

1297
01:03:35,567 --> 01:03:38,033
It just gave it a small nudge.

1298
01:03:38,033 --> 01:03:40,166
If you wanted
to do this in the future potentially,

1299
01:03:40,166 --> 01:03:41,333
it could potentially work

1300
01:03:41,333 --> 01:03:43,433
but you'd want
to do it years in advance.

1301
01:03:43,433 --> 01:03:45,667
Warning time
is really key here in order

1302
01:03:45,667 --> 01:03:47,934
to enable this asteroid deflection

1303
01:03:47,934 --> 01:03:50,200
to potentially be used
in the future and is part

1304
01:03:50,200 --> 01:03:53,033
of a much larger planetary
defense strategy.

1305
01:03:53,033 --> 01:03:56,834
The DART mission was the first
kinetic impactor demonstration.

1306
01:03:56,834 --> 01:04:00,900
It was a successful demonstration
of that technique.

1307
01:04:00,934 --> 01:04:04,000
There are also
other possible techniques.

1308
01:04:04,000 --> 01:04:06,133
If you do find one that is coming,

1309
01:04:06,133 --> 01:04:08,233
definitely there are several options.

1310
01:04:08,233 --> 01:04:10,133
There are different type
of mitigation

1311
01:04:10,133 --> 01:04:12,700
and they actually depend
on when you discover

1312
01:04:12,700 --> 01:04:14,200
that the object is going to impact.

1313
01:04:14,200 --> 01:04:15,333
One of the most important things

1314
01:04:15,333 --> 01:04:18,000
we can do to ensure
that mitigation actually works,

1315
01:04:18,000 --> 01:04:19,934
is we need to provide time.

1316
01:04:19,934 --> 01:04:21,066
Time is your best friend.

1317
01:04:21,066 --> 01:04:23,800
I have time to build a spacecraft,

1318
01:04:23,800 --> 01:04:27,333
go to space, analyze the object,
try to understand what type

1319
01:04:27,333 --> 01:04:29,400
of physical properties
this object has.

1320
01:04:29,400 --> 01:04:31,734
Then what we call
the reconnaissance mission

1321
01:04:31,734 --> 01:04:33,834
to fly by a rendezvous
so that we have

1322
01:04:33,834 --> 01:04:35,734
a better understanding
of what the asteroid is,

1323
01:04:35,734 --> 01:04:38,166
such as the size, the mass,

1324
01:04:38,166 --> 01:04:39,967
chemical composition for example.

1325
01:04:39,967 --> 01:04:44,033
It is a solid rock as it has
boulders, something like that.

1326
01:04:44,033 --> 01:04:47,133
Then you want to know
its orbit in a very accurate way,

1327
01:04:47,133 --> 01:04:50,166
because you want to track
it down and go straight on it.

1328
01:04:50,166 --> 01:04:53,066
The next step
is to figure out the mission

1329
01:04:53,066 --> 01:04:55,867
that could potentially deflect
the asteroid.

1330
01:04:55,867 --> 01:04:59,367
There are other techniques
though that still remain

1331
01:04:59,367 --> 01:05:03,433
to be tested for asteroid deflection.

1332
01:05:03,467 --> 01:05:05,767
A gravity tractor for instance,

1333
01:05:05,767 --> 01:05:11,400
where you just have a spacecraft
of some significant mass,

1334
01:05:11,400 --> 01:05:14,900
stationkeep with the asteroid
in the right position and

1335
01:05:14,900 --> 01:05:18,500
the mutual attraction
between the two objects will allow

1336
01:05:18,500 --> 01:05:21,166
the spacecraft
to slowly tug the asteroid

1337
01:05:21,166 --> 01:05:23,734
off of the impacting trajectory.

1338
01:05:23,734 --> 01:05:27,433
Another technique
might be an ion beam deflector,

1339
01:05:27,433 --> 01:05:31,333
where you've got a spacecraft
that turns its ion engines

1340
01:05:31,333 --> 01:05:34,734
onto the surface of the asteroid,

1341
01:05:34,734 --> 01:05:38,033
continuously bombarding
the surface of the asteroid,

1342
01:05:38,033 --> 01:05:40,433
does create pressure on its surface

1343
01:05:40,433 --> 01:05:47,300
and therefore a force of that changes
the velocity of the asteroid.

1344
01:05:48,166 --> 01:05:50,900
Of course, all the Hollywood movies

1345
01:05:50,900 --> 01:05:55,734
like to use nuclear explosives,
it's very dramatic and exciting,

1346
01:05:55,734 --> 01:05:59,100
but we wouldn't blow the asteroid
up like they do in the movies.

1347
01:05:59,100 --> 01:06:04,934
You'd detonate, the device bombards

1348
01:06:05,133 --> 01:06:10,166
the surface of the asteroid
with heavy radiation. That causes

1349
01:06:10,166 --> 01:06:15,767
the surface material to vaporize,
and jet off, and creates

1350
01:06:15,767 --> 01:06:19,400
an instantaneous rocket
engine so to speak,

1351
01:06:19,400 --> 01:06:21,266
and shoves the asteroid.

1352
01:06:21,266 --> 01:06:24,433
Really the goal at NASA
is to find the asteroids

1353
01:06:24,433 --> 01:06:27,500
years or decades
in advance that could pose

1354
01:06:27,500 --> 01:06:29,200
an impact threat to Earth.

1355
01:06:29,200 --> 01:06:30,700
Then you have the gift of time

1356
01:06:30,700 --> 01:06:36,033
to address possibly not having
that impact happen at all.

1357
01:06:37,400 --> 01:06:39,467
NASA is just one piece in the puzzle.

1358
01:06:39,467 --> 01:06:44,500
NASA has its role as the information
gatherer from space

1359
01:06:44,500 --> 01:06:47,133
and conveying that information
to other agencies.

1360
01:06:47,133 --> 01:06:49,600
Every piece
of the puzzle must rise up

1361
01:06:49,600 --> 01:06:52,433
to the occasion
and perform seamlessly.

1362
01:06:52,433 --> 01:06:54,166
To do that we have to practice.

1363
01:06:54,166 --> 01:06:58,867
NASA also participates
in interagency exercises

1364
01:06:58,867 --> 01:07:03,200
with many others
across the U.S. government, to step

1365
01:07:03,200 --> 01:07:05,700
through a situation where an asteroid

1366
01:07:05,700 --> 01:07:08,467
is discovered
so many years ahead of time.

1367
01:07:08,467 --> 01:07:11,266
Here is the type of information
that is known about it,

1368
01:07:11,266 --> 01:07:15,367
here are the possibilities
of what could happen next.

1369
01:07:19,634 --> 01:07:22,900
[applause]

1370
01:07:23,233 --> 01:07:25,867
Good morning everybody,
thank you for coming.

1371
01:07:25,867 --> 01:07:26,734
It's been a pleasure.

1372
01:07:26,734 --> 01:07:28,967
This is our fifth exercise.

1373
01:07:28,967 --> 01:07:31,333
Welcome to the fifth
Interagency Planetary

1374
01:07:31,333 --> 01:07:33,066
Defense Table Top Exercise.

1375
01:07:33,066 --> 01:07:35,867
This exercise is incredibly
important to bring together

1376
01:07:35,867 --> 01:07:37,900
the world experts
and decision-makers.

1377
01:07:37,900 --> 01:07:39,467
ESA Planetary Defense.

1378
01:07:39,467 --> 01:07:40,634
National Space Council.

1379
01:07:40,634 --> 01:07:41,200
FEMA.

1380
01:07:41,200 --> 01:07:42,367
NASA Headquarters.

1381
01:07:42,367 --> 01:07:43,433
U.S. Space Command.

1382
01:07:43,433 --> 01:07:44,433
The Department of State.

1383
01:07:44,433 --> 01:07:45,967
To better prepare us

1384
01:07:45,967 --> 01:07:49,500
for what is an inevitable
future asteroid impact.

1385
01:07:49,500 --> 01:07:51,367
We know it will happen.

1386
01:07:51,367 --> 01:07:53,500
We just don't know
when it will happen.

1387
01:07:53,500 --> 01:07:56,800
Really this exercise
focuses on is how we plan

1388
01:07:56,800 --> 01:08:01,934
and coordinate our activities
in response to a potential impact

1389
01:08:01,934 --> 01:08:07,700
for it to all to come together
into a plan on how we save the world.

1390
01:08:08,166 --> 01:08:10,567
And with that, I invite you all to open

1391
01:08:10,567 --> 01:08:13,300
the blue envelope in your folder.

1392
01:08:13,533 --> 01:08:15,867
And what you have in front
of you is a notification

1393
01:08:15,867 --> 01:08:18,233
from the International Asteroid
Warning Network,

1394
01:08:18,233 --> 01:08:22,700
about this hypothetical scenario
of a potential asteroid impact

1395
01:08:22,700 --> 01:08:25,967
for the near-Earth asteroid 2023 TTX.

1396
01:08:26,166 --> 01:08:29,066
At this point in the scenario,
the impact probability

1397
01:08:29,066 --> 01:08:34,467
of the asteroid is 72%
as calculated by NASA JPL CNEOS

1398
01:08:34,467 --> 01:08:37,734
and by the ESA
NEO Coordination Center.

1399
01:08:37,867 --> 01:08:42,967
The impact date
would be the 12th of July, 2038.

1400
01:08:42,967 --> 01:08:45,834
The potential impact
locations would span a corridor

1401
01:08:45,834 --> 01:08:48,133
from the South Pacific
across North America,

1402
01:08:48,133 --> 01:08:50,800
the Atlantic, the Iberian Peninsula,

1403
01:08:50,800 --> 01:08:52,600
the Mediterranean coast of Africa,

1404
01:08:52,600 --> 01:08:55,467
Egypt to the coast of Saudi Arabia.

1405
01:08:56,100 --> 01:08:58,700
Now, the size of the object
based on observations

1406
01:08:58,700 --> 01:09:00,634
from the ground
it's highly uncertain based

1407
01:09:00,634 --> 01:09:03,500
on the brightness
and the unknown surface reflectivity,

1408
01:09:03,500 --> 01:09:05,300
the coloring of the asteroid.

1409
01:09:05,300 --> 01:09:08,634
It's most likely estimated
to be in the range

1410
01:09:08,634 --> 01:09:13,133
of 100 to 320 meters based
on what is known about asteroids

1411
01:09:13,133 --> 01:09:19,233
but potentially at the extreme range
of 60 to 800 meters in diameter.

1412
01:09:19,233 --> 01:09:20,066
All right.

1413
01:09:20,066 --> 01:09:21,533
The next critical factor to consider

1414
01:09:21,533 --> 01:09:24,000
is of course how many people
could be affected

1415
01:09:24,000 --> 01:09:27,533
by these different damage sizes
along the different impact locations.

1416
01:09:27,533 --> 01:09:32,166
It's certainly regional to country
scale based on that size range.

1417
01:09:32,166 --> 01:09:34,567
For asteroids
in this general size range

1418
01:09:34,567 --> 01:09:37,800
the primary hazard
is going to be local blast

1419
01:09:37,800 --> 01:09:39,533
and thermal ground damage.

1420
01:09:39,533 --> 01:09:42,767
And the larger sizes
could also cause tsunami.

1421
01:09:43,467 --> 01:09:47,367
So overall, the average population
risk is around 270,000 people

1422
01:09:47,367 --> 01:09:50,400
among all the potential
Earth-impacting cases.

1423
01:09:50,400 --> 01:09:52,834
Then of course
there's still that 28% chance

1424
01:09:52,834 --> 01:09:56,900
that the asteroid could swing
by Earth and miss us entirely.

1425
01:09:56,900 --> 01:10:02,266
We have filled out the uncertainty
in 2038 with a bunch of white dots.

1426
01:10:02,266 --> 01:10:04,200
And we really don't know
which of those white

1427
01:10:04,200 --> 01:10:06,367
dots is the real asteroid.

1428
01:10:07,166 --> 01:10:09,066
And so we simulate virtual asteroids,

1429
01:10:09,066 --> 01:10:11,033
and we just run them
all towards the Earth.

1430
01:10:11,033 --> 01:10:12,367
The current situation is that

1431
01:10:12,367 --> 01:10:14,166
we don't know where it will hit.

1432
01:10:14,166 --> 01:10:16,634
We just know
that it'll hit along this line.

1433
01:10:16,634 --> 01:10:18,800
For this exercise
over the next two days,

1434
01:10:18,800 --> 01:10:21,567
we're going to stay frozen in time,
right here, right now,

1435
01:10:21,567 --> 01:10:24,900
14 years ahead of the asteroid
impact, and figure out

1436
01:10:24,900 --> 01:10:27,433
what do we do with the information
that we have now.

1437
01:10:27,433 --> 01:10:30,900
Disaster preparedness planning,
international space response,

1438
01:10:30,900 --> 01:10:33,800
information sharing
and public messaging.

1439
01:10:33,800 --> 01:10:35,700
So the challenge now is to figure out

1440
01:10:35,700 --> 01:10:39,767
how do we respond
and prepare for an uncertain event

1441
01:10:39,767 --> 01:10:42,800
like this where we're not sure
what could happen,

1442
01:10:42,800 --> 01:10:46,634
but the potential consequences
could be quite catastrophic.

1443
01:10:46,634 --> 01:10:48,133
This gets at sort of what we were hinting

1444
01:10:48,133 --> 01:10:50,700
at there starting to talk about
not just what the threat is,

1445
01:10:50,700 --> 01:10:52,500
but what we could
potentially do about it.

1446
01:10:52,500 --> 01:10:56,333
The good news is this asteroid
impact may be preventable.

1447
01:10:56,333 --> 01:11:00,533
We have at least three technologies
that we can consider for this.

1448
01:11:00,533 --> 01:11:02,767
And they have different physical effects.

1449
01:11:02,767 --> 01:11:06,266
The first is kinetic impact,
which is like the DART mission,

1450
01:11:06,266 --> 01:11:08,834
where a spacecraft
impacts the asteroid

1451
01:11:08,834 --> 01:11:11,367
to change its speed very slightly.

1452
01:11:11,367 --> 01:11:12,834
The second is an ion beam

1453
01:11:12,834 --> 01:11:15,634
where you use
a controlled electric thruster

1454
01:11:15,634 --> 01:11:20,467
to slowly push or pull
on the asteroid and change its speed.

1455
01:11:20,667 --> 01:11:22,734
And then finally, the nuclear
explosive device

1456
01:11:22,734 --> 01:11:25,266
where you literally boil
off part of the asteroid

1457
01:11:25,266 --> 01:11:26,934
in order to change its speed.

1458
01:11:26,934 --> 01:11:29,166
We also need to know
the physical properties

1459
01:11:29,166 --> 01:11:32,033
of the asteroid,
because all of these methods,

1460
01:11:32,033 --> 01:11:34,100
whether or not they work
and the specifics

1461
01:11:34,100 --> 01:11:36,200
of how you would design
them are tailored

1462
01:11:36,200 --> 01:11:39,066
to the specific asteroid properties.

1463
01:11:42,100 --> 01:11:44,567
Through forums like this one today

1464
01:11:44,567 --> 01:11:46,166
and tomorrow, and bringing together

1465
01:11:46,166 --> 01:11:48,600
all of you the world experts,
we can tackle

1466
01:11:48,600 --> 01:11:51,367
the detection
and characterization of asteroids,

1467
01:11:51,367 --> 01:11:55,533
ways to improve coordination
among allied nations.

1468
01:11:55,634 --> 01:11:56,867
That's why we want to exercise

1469
01:11:56,867 --> 01:11:59,700
all of these capabilities
now and not wait until then.

1470
01:11:59,700 --> 01:12:04,533
We took this opportunity to exercise
the whole system and campaign

1471
01:12:04,533 --> 01:12:09,033
that would be done
if a potential impactor was found.

1472
01:12:09,333 --> 01:12:13,467
[music]

1473
01:12:25,700 --> 01:12:27,133
Planetary defense is a team sport.

1474
01:12:27,133 --> 01:12:29,834
Asteroid impacts are a shared risk.

1475
01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:32,066
And so we really need to work as a team.

1476
01:12:32,066 --> 01:12:34,400
It's really important
that we have a global effort

1477
01:12:34,400 --> 01:12:35,900
to try to understand the problem.

1478
01:12:35,900 --> 01:12:38,500
No one nation can independently

1479
01:12:38,500 --> 01:12:40,700
save the world in case
of an impending impact.

1480
01:12:40,700 --> 01:12:42,333
It's a fantastic community.

1481
01:12:42,333 --> 01:12:46,400
I'm part of a global team
of planetary defenders.

1482
01:12:46,433 --> 01:12:49,367
Very proud to be part
of the planetary defense family.

1483
01:12:49,367 --> 01:12:51,567
It not only protects Earth today,

1484
01:12:51,567 --> 01:12:54,667
but provides
protection for the future.

1485
01:13:05,767 --> 01:13:12,166
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